xgEdge

1d 5h to kick-off
Match preview · Championship

Norwich City – Watford

Norwich City Home 20th in Championship
1.68
Watford Away 21st in Championship
0.99 Projected xG
Norwich City
53%
Mkt 61%
Fair 1.90
Draw
28%
Mkt 22%
Fair 3.55
Watford
19%
Mkt 16%
Fair 5.20

2 qualified edges: Norwich City at most 1 goal, Watford to win

Each passes the rule the Betting section applies, at this moment. How this is decided →

Data coverage · full
  • Norwich City 20/20
  • Watford 20/20
  • Model updated 30 October, 06:30
  • Top odds updated 29 October, 18:00

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.

  • Norwich City at most 1 goal Goals by team
    Edge +20.7%
    Model 48.3%
    Market 37.5%
    Fair odds 2.07 Bookmaker odds 2.50
    Model skill: +3.62%
  • Under 2.5 goals Goals
    Edge +16.2%
    Model 48.9%
    Market 39.8%
    Fair odds 2.04 Bookmaker odds 2.38
    Model skill: -0.89%
  • Watford to win Match result
    Edge +10.6%
    Model 19.2%
    Market 16.3%
    Fair odds 5.20 Bookmaker odds 5.75
    Model skill: +7.20%
Hide the other markets

Match result

  • Draw Match result
    Edge +18.2%
    Model 28.1%
    Market 22.4%
    Fair odds 3.55 Bookmaker odds 4.20
    Model skill: -1.04%
  • Watford to win Match result
    Edge +10.6%
    Model 19.2%
    Market 16.3%
    Fair odds 5.20 Bookmaker odds 5.75
    Model skill: +7.20%
  • Norwich City to win Match result
    Edge -19.3%
    Model 52.6%
    Market 61.3%
    Fair odds 1.90 Bookmaker odds 1.53
    Model skill: +7.19%

Model against the market

Draw

Model
28.1%
Market, margin removed
22.4%
Probability gap
+5.8 pp
Edge
+18.2%
Fair odds
3.55
Market odds
4.20 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins
3.73
Bookmaker margin
6.4%

Watford to win

Model
19.2%
Market, margin removed
16.3%
Probability gap
+2.9 pp
Edge
+10.6%
Fair odds
5.20
Market odds
5.75 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins
5.46
Bookmaker margin
6.4%

Norwich City to win

Model
52.6%
Market, margin removed
61.3%
Probability gap
−8.7 pp
Edge
−19.3%
Fair odds
1.90
Market odds
1.53 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins
2.00
Bookmaker margin
6.4%

Goals

  • Under 2.5 goals Goals
    Edge +16.2%
    Model 48.9%
    Market 39.8%
    Fair odds 2.04 Bookmaker odds 2.38
    Model skill: -0.89%
  • Under 1.5 goals Goals
    Edge +7.2%
    Model 21.4%
    Market 18.9%
    Fair odds 4.66 Bookmaker odds 5.00
    Model skill: -0.01%
  • Over 1.5 goals Goals
    Edge -8.3%
    Model 78.6%
    Market 81.1%
    Fair odds 1.27 Bookmaker odds 1.17
    Model skill: -0.01%
  • Over 2.5 goals Goals
    Edge -19.8%
    Model 51.1%
    Market 60.2%
    Fair odds 1.96 Bookmaker odds 1.57
    Model skill: -0.89%

Both teams to score

  • Both teams not to score Both teams to score
    Edge -4.4%
    Model 43.5%
    Market 42.3%
    Fair odds 2.30 Bookmaker odds 2.20
    Model skill: -0.43%
  • Both teams to score Both teams to score
    Edge -8.7%
    Model 56.5%
    Market 57.7%
    Fair odds 1.77 Bookmaker odds 1.62
    Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

  • Norwich City at most 1 goal Goals by team
    Edge +20.7%
    Model 48.3%
    Market 37.5%
    Fair odds 2.07 Bookmaker odds 2.50
    Model skill: +3.62%
  • Norwich City not to score Goals by team
    Edge +13.5%
    Model 16.2%
    Market 13.6%
    Fair odds 6.17 Bookmaker odds 7.00
    Model skill: +3.77% Kept answer: Norwich City at most 1 goal +20.7%
  • Watford at most 1 goal Goals by team
    Edge -1.2%
    Model 74.2%
    Market 70.9%
    Fair odds 1.35 Bookmaker odds 1.33
    Model skill: +2.61%
  • Watford to score Goals by team
    Edge -5.4%
    Model 65.5%
    Market 64.5%
    Fair odds 1.53 Bookmaker odds 1.44
    Model skill: +2.56%
  • Norwich City to score Goals by team
    Edge -7.8%
    Model 83.8%
    Market 86.4%
    Fair odds 1.19 Bookmaker odds 1.10
    Model skill: +3.77%
  • Watford not to score Goals by team
    Edge -9.4%
    Model 34.5%
    Market 35.5%
    Fair odds 2.90 Bookmaker odds 2.63
    Model skill: +2.56%
  • Watford 2+ goals Goals by team
    Edge -16.0%
    Model 25.8%
    Market 29.1%
    Fair odds 3.87 Bookmaker odds 3.25
    Model skill: +2.61%
  • Norwich City 2+ goals Goals by team
    Edge -22.4%
    Model 51.7%
    Market 62.5%
    Fair odds 1.93 Bookmaker odds 1.50
    Model skill: +3.62%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

Got different odds? Check your price →

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match
Norwich City xG 1.01 xGA 1.64
  • L 1.62 created, 2.07 conceded against Middlesbrough
  • L 0.69 created, 1.10 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
  • L 0.68 created, 2.36 conceded against Swansea City
  • L 1.07 created, 2.34 conceded against Southampton
  • L 0.29 created, 1.19 conceded against Portsmouth
  • W 1.69 created, 0.79 conceded against Charlton Athletic
Watford xG 1.00 xGA 1.95
  • L 0.39 created, 1.50 conceded against Stoke City
  • L 0.57 created, 1.47 conceded against Bristol City
  • L 0.64 created, 1.94 conceded against Burnley
  • L 1.46 created, 3.67 conceded against Cardiff City
  • W 2.78 created, 1.25 conceded against Charlton Athletic
  • L 0.13 created, 1.84 conceded against Wolverhampton

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals
2.66
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Both teams to score
57%
Norwich City 2+ goals
52%
Norwich City clean sheet
35%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.

1:1
14.4%
2:1
11.4%
2:0
10.0%

Why the model favours Norwich City

Attack, defence and recent form all point to Norwich City.

Attack
Favours Norwich City
10th vs 23rd
Norwich City attack v Watford defence
Defence
Favours Norwich City
11th vs 22nd
Norwich City defence v Watford attack
Recent xG form
Favours Norwich City
-0.64 vs -0.95
xGD per match, last 6
How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Norwich City and Watford compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading Norwich City Watford
xG / match (better) 1.48 · 10th 1.05 · 20th
xGA / match (better) 1.53 · 16th 1.88 · 23rd
xGD / match (better) -0.05 · 13th -0.83 · 24th
xPts / match (better) 1.33 · 14th 0.82 · 24th
Last 6 xGD / match (better) -0.63 -0.95

Head to head

Norwich City 0 Draws 0 Watford 2

Got a different price?

Type your bookmaker's odds for any market and see their edge against the model.

Close the calculator
How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

Norwich City to win
52.6% 1.90 —
Draw
28.1% 3.55 —
Watford to win
19.2% 5.20 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals
78.6% 1.27 —
Under 1.5 goals
21.4% 4.66 —
Over 2.5 goals
51.1% 1.96 —
Under 2.5 goals
48.9% 2.04 —

Both teams to score

Both teams to score
56.5% 1.77 —
Both teams not to score
43.5% 2.30 —

Team goals — Norwich City

Norwich City to score
83.8% 1.19 —
Norwich City not to score
16.2% 6.17 —
Norwich City 2+ goals
51.7% 1.93 —
Norwich City at most 1 goal
48.3% 2.07 —

Team goals — Watford

Watford to score
65.5% 1.53 —
Watford not to score
34.5% 2.90 —
Watford 2+ goals
25.8% 3.87 —
Watford at most 1 goal
74.2% 1.35 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

Mind if we count your visit?

We use Google Analytics to see how many people visit and which pages they read, and Google ads to pay for the site. They load after you allow them, and not before. What we collect