Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 16:00
8d 5h to kick-offPreston North End – Southampton
- Preston North End
- 29%
- Fair 3.41 Fair odds 3.41
- Draw
- 28%
- Fair 3.62 Fair odds 3.62
- Southampton
- 43%
- Fair 2.32 Fair odds 2.32
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Preston North End 20/20
- Southampton 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 09:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- L 0.58 created, 0.66 conceded against Lincoln City
- D 1.50 created, 2.54 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 0.65 created, 1.09 conceded against Millwall
- L 0.49 created, 2.24 conceded against Birmingham City
- L 0.72 created, 1.86 conceded against Wrexham
- D 1.79 created, 2.08 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- W 1.71 created, 2.24 conceded against Bristol City
- L 2.08 created, 0.54 conceded against Wrexham
- W 1.28 created, 1.18 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 2.34 created, 1.07 conceded against Norwich City
- D 1.87 created, 1.22 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 1.55 created, 1.52 conceded against West Ham United
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 3.11
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- Southampton 2+ goals
- 53%
- Southampton clean sheet
- 22%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 12.9%
- 1:2
- 10.5%
- 2:1
- 8.5%
Why the model favours Southampton
Southampton's attack and recent form carry the lean; its defence does not back it.
- Attack
- Favours Southampton
- 3rd vs 24th
- Southampton attack v Preston North End defence
- Defence
- Favours Preston North End
- 13th vs 12th
- Southampton defence v Preston North End attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Southampton
- +0.51 vs -0.79
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Preston North End | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.28 · 16th | (better) 1.81 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.51 · 15th | (better) 1.33 · 10th |
| xGD / match | -0.23 · 16th | (better) +0.48 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.19 · 16th | (better) 1.70 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.79 | (better) +0.51 |
Head to head
Preston North End 1 Draws 0 Southampton 1
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Preston North End sample
- 20 matches
- Southampton sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Preston North End
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Southampton
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 09:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.