Tuesday, 24/11/2026 at 20:45
24d 9h to kick-offSheffield United – Southampton
- Sheffield United
- 30%
- Fair 3.30 Fair odds 3.30
- Draw
- 29%
- Fair 3.43 Fair odds 3.43
- Southampton
- 41%
- Fair 2.47 Fair odds 2.47
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Sheffield United 20/20
- Southampton 20/20
- Model updated 31 October, 09:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- W 1.71 created, 2.24 conceded against Bristol City
- L 2.08 created, 0.54 conceded against Wrexham
- W 1.28 created, 1.18 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 2.34 created, 1.07 conceded against Norwich City
- D 1.87 created, 1.22 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 1.55 created, 1.52 conceded against West Ham United
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.87
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- Southampton 2+ goals
- 47%
- Southampton clean sheet
- 24%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 14.3%
- 1:2
- 10.4%
- 2:1
- 8.8%
Why the model favours Southampton
Attack, defence and recent form all point to Southampton.
- Attack
- Favours Southampton
- 3rd vs 16th
- Southampton attack v Sheffield United defence
- Defence
- Favours Southampton
- 13th vs 17th
- Southampton defence v Sheffield United attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Southampton
- +0.51 vs +0.26
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sheffield United | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.17 · 18th | (better) 1.81 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.39 · 12th | (better) 1.33 · 10th |
| xGD / match | -0.22 · 16th | (better) +0.48 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.22 · 16th | (better) 1.70 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.26 | (better) +0.51 |
Head to head
Sheffield United 0 Draws 0 Southampton 2
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sheffield United sample
- 20 matches
- Southampton sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sheffield United
- 7 matches
- Away xG sample · Southampton
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 09:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.