Sheffield United – Wrexham prediction, 30 October 2026 · Championship

Friday, 30/10/2026 at 21:00 Fri 30 October, 21:00

12h 59m to kick-off

Match preview · Championship

Sheffield United Home 12th in Championship

1.20

Wrexham Away 17th in Championship

1.20 Projected xG

Sheffield United: 34%; Mkt 40% Market 40%; Fair 2.95 Fair odds 2.95
Draw: 32%; Mkt 28% Market 28%; Fair 3.08 Fair odds 3.08
Wrexham: 34%; Mkt 32% Market 32%; Fair 2.97 Fair odds 2.97

No qualified edge

The largest edge is Draw at +10.3%, and the Betting section's rule stops it: No proven skill. How this is decided →

Data coverage · full

Sheffield United 20/20
Wrexham 20/20

Model updated 30 October, 06:30
Top odds updated 30 October, 06:00

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.

Draw Match result

Edge +10.3%

Model 32.4%

Market 27.6%

Fair odds 3.08 Bookmaker odds 3.40

Model skill: -1.04%
Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +7.0%

Model 56.1%

Market 50.0%

Fair odds 1.78 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: -0.89%
Sheffield United at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +3.0%

Model 65.6%

Market 58.9%

Fair odds 1.53 Bookmaker odds 1.57

Model skill: +3.62%

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Match result

Draw Match result

Edge +10.3%

Model 32.4%

Market 27.6%

Fair odds 3.08 Bookmaker odds 3.40

Model skill: -1.04%
Wrexham to win Match result

Edge -2.4%

Model 33.6%

Market 32.4%

Fair odds 2.97 Bookmaker odds 2.90

Model skill: +7.20%
Sheffield United to win Match result

Edge -20.3%

Model 33.9%

Market 40.0%

Fair odds 2.95 Bookmaker odds 2.35

Model skill: +7.19%

Model against the market

Draw

Model: 32.4%
Market, margin removed: 27.6%

Probability gap: +4.8 pp
Edge: +10.3%
Fair odds: 3.08
Market odds: 3.40 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.24
Bookmaker margin: 6.4%

Wrexham to win

Model: 33.6%
Market, margin removed: 32.4%

Probability gap: +1.2 pp
Edge: −2.4%
Fair odds: 2.97
Market odds: 2.90 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.12
Bookmaker margin: 6.4%

Sheffield United to win

Model: 33.9%
Market, margin removed: 40.0%

Probability gap: −6.1 pp
Edge: −20.3%
Fair odds: 2.95
Market odds: 2.35 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.10
Bookmaker margin: 6.4%

Goals

Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +7.0%

Model 56.1%

Market 50.0%

Fair odds 1.78 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: -0.89%
Under 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -0.9%

Model 26.4%

Market 25.5%

Fair odds 3.79 Bookmaker odds 3.75

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -5.4%

Model 73.6%

Market 74.5%

Fair odds 1.36 Bookmaker odds 1.29

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -16.1%

Model 43.9%

Market 50.0%

Fair odds 2.28 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: -0.89%

Both teams to score

Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge -5.2%

Model 54.9%

Market 53.7%

Fair odds 1.82 Bookmaker odds 1.73

Model skill: -0.43%
Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge -9.8%

Model 45.1%

Market 46.3%

Fair odds 2.22 Bookmaker odds 2.00

Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

Sheffield United at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +3.0%

Model 65.6%

Market 58.9%

Fair odds 1.53 Bookmaker odds 1.57

Model skill: +3.62%
Sheffield United not to score Goals by team

Edge +1.7%

Model 27.1%

Market 25.0%

Fair odds 3.69 Bookmaker odds 3.75

Model skill: +3.77%
Wrexham at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -1.3%

Model 65.8%

Market 62.5%

Fair odds 1.52 Bookmaker odds 1.50

Model skill: +2.61%
Wrexham to score Goals by team

Edge -3.1%

Model 72.7%

Market 70.9%

Fair odds 1.38 Bookmaker odds 1.33

Model skill: +2.56%
Sheffield United to score Goals by team

Edge -8.9%

Model 72.9%

Market 75.0%

Fair odds 1.37 Bookmaker odds 1.25

Model skill: +3.77%
Wrexham not to score Goals by team

Edge -11.3%

Model 27.3%

Market 29.1%

Fair odds 3.66 Bookmaker odds 3.25

Model skill: +2.56%
Wrexham 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -14.4%

Model 34.2%

Market 37.5%

Fair odds 2.92 Bookmaker odds 2.50

Model skill: +2.61%
Sheffield United 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -22.5%

Model 34.4%

Market 41.1%

Fair odds 2.90 Bookmaker odds 2.25

Model skill: +3.62%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

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Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Sheffield United xG 1.24 xGA 1.22

L 0.63 created, 1.57 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 0.48 created, 0.54 conceded against Stoke City
W 0.68 created, 1.39 conceded against Lincoln City
L 2.01 created, 2.22 conceded against Portsmouth
W 1.18 created, 0.50 conceded against Bristol City
D 2.47 created, 1.09 conceded against Derby County

Wrexham xG 1.06 xGA 1.47

L 0.44 created, 2.96 conceded against West Ham United
W 0.54 created, 2.08 conceded against Southampton
D 1.46 created, 0.60 conceded against Derby County
L 0.38 created, 0.94 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
W 1.86 created, 0.72 conceded against Preston North End
L 1.69 created, 1.53 conceded against Blackburn Rovers

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals: 2.40
Over 2.5 goals: 44%
Both teams to score: 55%
Sheffield United 2+ goals: 34%
Sheffield United clean sheet: 27%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.

1:1: 16.7%
0:0: 9.3%
2:1: 9.2%

Why the model leans Sheffield United, but not by much

Home advantage carries the lean to Sheffield United: in Championship, home sides score 1.19 times as many goals as visitors, and at most one of the three readings below backs Sheffield United.

Attack: Favours Wrexham; 15th vs 8th; Sheffield United attack v Wrexham defence
Defence: Favours Wrexham; 19th vs 18th; Sheffield United defence v Wrexham attack
Recent xG form: Favours Sheffield United; +0.02 vs -0.41; xGD per match, last 6

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Sheffield United and Wrexham compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Sheffield United	Wrexham
xG / match	(better) 1.18 · 18th	1.17 · 19th
xGA / match	1.46 · 13th	(better) 1.21 · 5th
xGD / match	-0.28 · 17th	(better) -0.04 · 12th
xPts / match	1.17 · 17th	(better) 1.41 · 12th
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.02	-0.41

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Sheffield United and Wrexham compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Sheffield United	Wrexham
xG / match	(better) 1.18 · 18th	1.17 · 19th
npxG / match	1.13	(better) 1.15
Shots / match	10.7 · 23rd	(better) 12.3 · joint 16th
npxG / shot	(better) 0.11 · 7th	0.09 · 14th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Sheffield United and Wrexham compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Sheffield United	Wrexham
xGA / match	1.46 · 13th	(better) 1.21 · 5th
Shots faced / match	15.5 · joint 17th	(better) 12.0 · 8th
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.09 · 6th	0.09 · 12th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Sheffield United and Wrexham compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Sheffield United	Wrexham
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 1.24	1.06
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 1.22	1.47
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.02	-0.41

Head to head

Sheffield United 0 Draws 0 Wrexham 2

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How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

Sheffield United to win

33.9% 2.95 —

Draw

32.4% 3.08 —

Wrexham to win

33.6% 2.97 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

73.6% 1.36 —

Under 1.5 goals

26.4% 3.79 —

Over 2.5 goals

43.9% 2.28 —

Under 2.5 goals

56.1% 1.78 —

Both teams to score

54.9% 1.82 —

Both teams not to score

45.1% 2.22 —

Team goals — Sheffield United

Sheffield United to score

72.9% 1.37 —

Sheffield United not to score

27.1% 3.69 —

Sheffield United 2+ goals

34.4% 2.90 —

Sheffield United at most 1 goal

65.6% 1.53 —

Team goals — Wrexham

Wrexham to score

72.7% 1.38 —

Wrexham not to score

27.3% 3.66 —

Wrexham 2+ goals

34.2% 2.92 —

Wrexham at most 1 goal

65.8% 1.52 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Sheffield United xG 1.24 xGA 1.22

L 0.63 created, 1.57 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 0.48 created, 0.54 conceded against Stoke City
W 0.68 created, 1.39 conceded against Lincoln City
L 2.01 created, 2.22 conceded against Portsmouth
W 1.18 created, 0.50 conceded against Bristol City
D 2.47 created, 1.09 conceded against Derby County

Wrexham xG 1.06 xGA 1.47

L 0.44 created, 2.96 conceded against West Ham United
W 0.54 created, 2.08 conceded against Southampton
D 1.46 created, 0.60 conceded against Derby County
L 0.38 created, 0.94 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
W 1.86 created, 0.72 conceded against Preston North End
L 1.69 created, 1.53 conceded against Blackburn Rovers

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Sheffield United 0 Draws 0 Wrexham 2

Where the model disagrees with the market

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Goals by team

Recent form

Goals & scorelines

Most likely scorelines

Why the model leans Sheffield United, but not by much

Team comparison

Sheffield United attack → Wrexham defence

Wrexham attack → Sheffield United defence

Head to head

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Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Sheffield United

Team goals — Wrexham

What the model doesn't know