Friday, 30/10/2026 at 21:00
14h 36m to kick-offSheffield United – Wrexham
- Sheffield United
- 34%
- Mkt 40% Market 40%
- Fair 2.95 Fair odds 2.95
- Draw
- 32%
- Mkt 28% Market 28%
- Fair 3.08 Fair odds 3.08
- Wrexham
- 34%
- Mkt 32% Market 32%
- Fair 2.97 Fair odds 2.97
No qualified edge
The largest edge is Draw at +10.3%, and the Betting section's rule stops it: Not yet evaluated. How this is decided →
- Sheffield United 20/20
- Wrexham 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 03:30
- Top odds updated 30 October, 06:00
Where the model disagrees with the market
Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.
Match result
Model against the market
Draw
- Model
- 32.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.6%
- Probability gap
- +4.8 pp
- Edge
- +10.3%
- Fair odds
- 3.08
- Market odds
- 3.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.24
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.4%
Wrexham to win
- Model
- 33.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 32.4%
- Probability gap
- +1.2 pp
- Edge
- −2.4%
- Fair odds
- 2.97
- Market odds
- 2.90 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.12
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.4%
Sheffield United to win
- Model
- 33.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 40.0%
- Probability gap
- −6.1 pp
- Edge
- −20.3%
- Fair odds
- 2.95
- Market odds
- 2.35 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.10
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.4%
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →
Recent form
- L 0.63 created, 1.57 conceded against Wolverhampton
- L 0.48 created, 0.54 conceded against Stoke City
- W 0.68 created, 1.39 conceded against Lincoln City
- L 2.01 created, 2.22 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 1.18 created, 0.50 conceded against Bristol City
- D 2.47 created, 1.09 conceded against Derby County
- L 0.44 created, 2.96 conceded against West Ham United
- W 0.54 created, 2.08 conceded against Southampton
- D 1.46 created, 0.60 conceded against Derby County
- L 0.38 created, 0.94 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- W 1.86 created, 0.72 conceded against Preston North End
- L 1.69 created, 1.53 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- Sheffield United 2+ goals
- 34%
- Sheffield United clean sheet
- 27%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 16.7%
- 0:0
- 9.3%
- 2:1
- 9.2%
Why the model leans Sheffield United, but not by much
Home advantage carries the lean to Sheffield United: in Championship, home sides score 1.19 times as many goals as visitors, and at most one of the three readings below backs Sheffield United.
- Attack
- Favours Wrexham
- 15th vs 8th
- Sheffield United attack v Wrexham defence
- Defence
- Favours Wrexham
- 19th vs 18th
- Sheffield United defence v Wrexham attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Sheffield United
- +0.02 vs -0.41
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sheffield United | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.18 · 18th | 1.17 · 19th |
| xGA / match | 1.46 · 13th | (better) 1.21 · 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.28 · 17th | (better) -0.04 · 12th |
| xPts / match | 1.17 · 17th | (better) 1.41 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.02 | -0.41 |
Head to head
Sheffield United 0 Draws 0 Wrexham 2
Got a different price?
Type your bookmaker's odds for any market and see their edge against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sheffield United sample
- 20 matches
- Wrexham sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sheffield United
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Wrexham
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 03:30
- Odds updated
- 22 minutes ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.