Saturday, 21/11/2026 at 13:30
22d 9h to kick-offSouthampton – Derby County
- Southampton
- 55%
- Fair 1.82 Fair odds 1.82
- Draw
- 26%
- Fair 3.85 Fair odds 3.85
- Derby County
- 19%
- Fair 5.25 Fair odds 5.25
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Southampton 20/20
- Derby County 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 03:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- W 1.71 created, 2.24 conceded against Bristol City
- L 2.08 created, 0.54 conceded against Wrexham
- W 1.28 created, 1.18 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 2.34 created, 1.07 conceded against Norwich City
- D 1.87 created, 1.22 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 1.55 created, 1.52 conceded against West Ham United
- L 1.11 created, 3.17 conceded against Birmingham City
- D 1.75 created, 0.45 conceded against Burnley
- D 0.60 created, 1.46 conceded against Wrexham
- L 0.85 created, 1.52 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 0.99 created, 0.56 conceded against Stoke City
- D 1.09 created, 2.47 conceded against Sheffield United
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.99
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- Southampton 2+ goals
- 58%
- Southampton clean sheet
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 12.8%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 8.8%
Why the model favours Southampton
Attack, defence and recent form all point to Southampton.
- Attack
- Favours Southampton
- 3rd vs 20th
- Southampton attack v Derby County defence
- Defence
- Favours Southampton
- 13th vs 19th
- Southampton defence v Derby County attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Southampton
- +0.51 vs -0.54
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Southampton | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.81 · 4th | 0.97 · 23rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.33 · 10th | 1.72 · 21st |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.48 · 5th | -0.75 · 22nd |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.70 · 5th | 1.02 · 20th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.51 | -0.54 |
Head to head
Southampton 1 Draws 1 Derby County 0
Got a different price?
Type your bookmaker's odds for any market and see their edge against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Southampton sample
- 20 matches
- Derby County sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Southampton
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Derby County
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.