Southampton – Queens Park Rangers prediction, 31 October 2026 · Championship

Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00 Sat 31 October, 16:00

1d 5h to kick-off

Match preview · Championship

Southampton Home 2nd in Championship

1.46

Queens Park Rangers Away tied 7th in Championship

1.29 Projected xG

Southampton: 39%; Mkt 54% Market 54%; Fair 2.55 Fair odds 2.55
Draw: 30%; Mkt 24% Market 24%; Fair 3.35 Fair odds 3.35
Queens Park Rangers: 31%; Mkt 22% Market 22%; Fair 3.24 Fair odds 3.24

2 qualified edges: Southampton not to score, Queens Park Rangers to win

Each passes the rule the Betting section applies, at this moment. How this is decided →

Data coverage · full

Southampton 20/20
Queens Park Rangers 20/20

Model updated 30 October, 09:30
Top odds updated 29 October, 18:00

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.

Southampton not to score Goals by team

Edge +34.3%

Model 20.7%

Market 14.6%

Fair odds 4.84 Bookmaker odds 6.50

Model skill: +3.77%
Queens Park Rangers to win Match result

Edge +29.6%

Model 30.9%

Market 22.3%

Fair odds 3.24 Bookmaker odds 4.20

Model skill: +7.20%
Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +11.2%

Model 46.8%

Market 39.8%

Fair odds 2.14 Bookmaker odds 2.38

Model skill: -0.89%
Queens Park Rangers 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge +3.4%

Model 37.6%

Market 33.7%

Fair odds 2.66 Bookmaker odds 2.75

Model skill: +2.61%

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Match result

Queens Park Rangers to win Match result

Edge +29.6%

Model 30.9%

Market 22.3%

Fair odds 3.24 Bookmaker odds 4.20

Model skill: +7.20%
Draw Match result

Edge +16.5%

Model 29.9%

Market 24.1%

Fair odds 3.35 Bookmaker odds 3.90

Model skill: -1.04%
Southampton to win Match result

Edge -31.3%

Model 39.3%

Market 53.6%

Fair odds 2.55 Bookmaker odds 1.75

Model skill: +7.19%

Model against the market

Queens Park Rangers to win

Model: 30.9%
Market, margin removed: 22.3%

Probability gap: +8.5 pp
Edge: +29.6%
Fair odds: 3.24
Market odds: 4.20 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.40
Bookmaker margin: 6.6%

Draw

Model: 29.9%
Market, margin removed: 24.1%

Probability gap: +5.8 pp
Edge: +16.5%
Fair odds: 3.35
Market odds: 3.90 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.51
Bookmaker margin: 6.6%

Southampton to win

Model: 39.3%
Market, margin removed: 53.6%

Probability gap: −14.3 pp
Edge: −31.3%
Fair odds: 2.55
Market odds: 1.75 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 2.67
Bookmaker margin: 6.6%

Goals

Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +11.2%

Model 46.8%

Market 39.8%

Fair odds 2.14 Bookmaker odds 2.38

Model skill: -0.89%
Under 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -0.1%

Model 20.0%

Market 18.9%

Fair odds 5.01 Bookmaker odds 5.00

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -6.6%

Model 80.0%

Market 81.1%

Fair odds 1.25 Bookmaker odds 1.17

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -16.5%

Model 53.2%

Market 60.2%

Fair odds 1.88 Bookmaker odds 1.57

Model skill: -0.89%

Both teams to score

Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge -6.1%

Model 61.3%

Market 60.8%

Fair odds 1.63 Bookmaker odds 1.53

Model skill: -0.43%
Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge -8.0%

Model 38.7%

Market 39.2%

Fair odds 2.58 Bookmaker odds 2.38

Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

Southampton not to score Goals by team

Edge +34.3%

Model 20.7%

Market 14.6%

Fair odds 4.84 Bookmaker odds 6.50

Model skill: +3.77%
Southampton at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +23.1%

Model 55.9%

Market 42.3%

Fair odds 1.79 Bookmaker odds 2.20

Model skill: +3.62% Kept answer: Southampton not to score +34.3%
Queens Park Rangers 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge +3.4%

Model 37.6%

Market 33.7%

Fair odds 2.66 Bookmaker odds 2.75

Model skill: +2.61%
Queens Park Rangers to score Goals by team

Edge +2.4%

Model 75.1%

Market 68.7%

Fair odds 1.33 Bookmaker odds 1.36

Model skill: +2.56%
Southampton to score Goals by team

Edge -11.9%

Model 79.3%

Market 85.4%

Fair odds 1.26 Bookmaker odds 1.11

Model skill: +3.77%
Queens Park Rangers at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -12.7%

Model 62.4%

Market 66.3%

Fair odds 1.60 Bookmaker odds 1.40

Model skill: +2.61%
Queens Park Rangers not to score Goals by team

Edge -25.2%

Model 24.9%

Market 31.3%

Fair odds 4.01 Bookmaker odds 3.00

Model skill: +2.56%
Southampton 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -28.9%

Model 44.1%

Market 57.7%

Fair odds 2.27 Bookmaker odds 1.62

Model skill: +3.62%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

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Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Southampton xG 1.81 xGA 1.30

W 1.71 created, 2.24 conceded against Bristol City
L 2.08 created, 0.54 conceded against Wrexham
W 1.28 created, 1.18 conceded against Portsmouth
W 2.34 created, 1.07 conceded against Norwich City
D 1.87 created, 1.22 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
W 1.55 created, 1.52 conceded against West Ham United

Queens Park Rangers xG 1.72 xGA 1.09

D 0.62 created, 1.22 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
D 2.54 created, 1.50 conceded against Preston North End
D 1.27 created, 1.44 conceded against West Ham United
W 1.52 created, 0.85 conceded against Derby County
L 1.15 created, 1.30 conceded against Birmingham City
W 3.22 created, 0.20 conceded against Swansea City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals: 2.75
Over 2.5 goals: 53%
Both teams to score: 61%
Southampton 2+ goals: 44%
Southampton clean sheet: 25%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.

1:1: 14.9%
2:1: 10.2%
1:2: 8.8%

Why the model leans Southampton, but not by much

Home advantage carries the lean to Southampton: in Championship, home sides score 1.19 times as many goals as visitors, and at most one of the three readings below backs Southampton.

Attack: Favours Southampton; 3rd vs 4th; Southampton attack v Queens Park Rangers defence
Defence: Favours Queens Park Rangers; 13th vs 7th; Southampton defence v Queens Park Rangers attack
Recent xG form: Favours Queens Park Rangers; +0.51 vs +0.64; xGD per match, last 6

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Southampton and Queens Park Rangers compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Southampton	Queens Park Rangers
xG / match	(better) 1.81 · 4th	1.65 · 8th
xGA / match	1.33 · 10th	(better) 1.12 · 3rd
xGD / match	+0.48 · 5th	(better) +0.53 · 4th
xPts / match	1.70 · 5th	(better) 1.72 · 4th
Last 6 xGD / match	+0.51	(better) +0.64

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Southampton and Queens Park Rangers compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Southampton	Queens Park Rangers
xG / match	(better) 1.81 · 4th	1.65 · 8th
npxG / match	(better) 1.62	1.49
Shots / match	(better) 15.2 · 5th	14.8 · 6th
npxG / shot	(better) 0.11 · 6th	0.10 · 9th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Southampton and Queens Park Rangers compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Southampton	Queens Park Rangers
xGA / match	1.33 · 10th	(better) 1.12 · 3rd
Shots faced / match	15.8 · 20th	(better) 11.4 · 5th
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.07 · 1st	0.10 · 14th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Southampton and Queens Park Rangers compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Southampton	Queens Park Rangers
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 1.81	1.72
Last 6 xGA / match	1.30	(better) 1.09
Last 6 xGD / match	+0.51	(better) +0.64

Head to head

Southampton 2 Draws 0 Queens Park Rangers 0

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How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

Southampton to win

39.3% 2.55 —

Draw

29.9% 3.35 —

Queens Park Rangers to win

30.9% 3.24 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

80.0% 1.25 —

Under 1.5 goals

20.0% 5.01 —

Over 2.5 goals

53.2% 1.88 —

Under 2.5 goals

46.8% 2.14 —

Both teams to score

61.3% 1.63 —

Both teams not to score

38.7% 2.58 —

Team goals — Southampton

Southampton to score

79.3% 1.26 —

Southampton not to score

20.7% 4.84 —

Southampton 2+ goals

44.1% 2.27 —

Southampton at most 1 goal

55.9% 1.79 —

Team goals — Queens Park Rangers

Queens Park Rangers to score

75.1% 1.33 —

Queens Park Rangers not to score

24.9% 4.01 —

Queens Park Rangers 2+ goals

37.6% 2.66 —

Queens Park Rangers at most 1 goal

62.4% 1.60 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Southampton xG 1.81 xGA 1.30

W 1.71 created, 2.24 conceded against Bristol City
L 2.08 created, 0.54 conceded against Wrexham
W 1.28 created, 1.18 conceded against Portsmouth
W 2.34 created, 1.07 conceded against Norwich City
D 1.87 created, 1.22 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
W 1.55 created, 1.52 conceded against West Ham United

Queens Park Rangers xG 1.72 xGA 1.09

D 0.62 created, 1.22 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
D 2.54 created, 1.50 conceded against Preston North End
D 1.27 created, 1.44 conceded against West Ham United
W 1.52 created, 0.85 conceded against Derby County
L 1.15 created, 1.30 conceded against Birmingham City
W 3.22 created, 0.20 conceded against Swansea City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Southampton 2 Draws 0 Queens Park Rangers 0

Where the model disagrees with the market

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Goals by team

Recent form

Goals & scorelines

Most likely scorelines

Why the model leans Southampton, but not by much

Team comparison

Southampton attack → Queens Park Rangers defence

Queens Park Rangers attack → Southampton defence

Head to head

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Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Southampton

Team goals — Queens Park Rangers

What the model doesn't know