Southampton xG 2026/2027: expected goals, xGA & xPts per match

Southampton xG and xGA per match

Attack

1.81 xG per match

Attack (xG per match) across Championship, best first
Rank	Club	xG per match
#1	Middlesbrough	2.16
#2	West Ham United	2.11
#3	Cardiff City	1.92
#4	Southampton	1.81
#5	Millwall	1.75
#6	Wolverhampton	1.72
#7	Birmingham City	1.69
#8	Queens Park Rangers	1.65
#9	Swansea City	1.49
#10	Norwich City	1.48
#11	Bolton Wanderers	1.36
#12	West Bromwich Albion	1.35
#13	Burnley	1.32
#14	Portsmouth	1.31
#15	Lincoln City	1.30
#16	Preston North End	1.28
#17	Bristol City	1.27
#18	Sheffield United	1.18
#19	Wrexham	1.17
#20	Watford	1.05
#21	Blackburn Rovers	1.03
#22	Charlton Athletic	0.99
#23	Derby County	0.97
#24	Stoke City	0.88

League avg: 1.43
Total: 21.71 12 matches

Defence

1.33 xGA per match

#10/24

Defence (xGA per match) across Championship, best first
Rank	Club	xGA per match
#1	Wolverhampton	0.92
#2	Middlesbrough	1.02
#3	Queens Park Rangers	1.12
#4	Portsmouth	1.13
#5	Wrexham	1.21
#6	West Ham United	1.21
#7	Bristol City	1.29
#8	Swansea City	1.32
#9	Millwall	1.32
#10	Southampton	1.33
#11	Birmingham City	1.33
#12	Lincoln City	1.45
#13	Sheffield United	1.46
#14	West Bromwich Albion	1.47
#15	Preston North End	1.51
#16	Norwich City	1.53
#17	Cardiff City	1.57
#18	Charlton Athletic	1.58
#19	Stoke City	1.63
#20	Burnley	1.65
#21	Derby County	1.72
#22	Blackburn Rovers	1.72
#23	Watford	1.88
#24	Bolton Wanderers	1.90

League avg: 1.43
Total: 15.90 12 matches

xG difference

+0.48 xGD per match

#5/24

xG difference (xGD per match) across Championship, best first
Rank	Club	xGD per match
#1	Middlesbrough	+1.15
#2	West Ham United	+0.90
#3	Wolverhampton	+0.81
#4	Queens Park Rangers	+0.53
#5	Southampton	+0.48
#6	Millwall	+0.43
#7	Birmingham City	+0.37
#8	Cardiff City	+0.35
#9	Portsmouth	+0.18
#10	Swansea City	+0.17
#11	Bristol City	-0.02
#12	Wrexham	-0.04
#13	Norwich City	-0.05
#14	West Bromwich Albion	-0.12
#15	Lincoln City	-0.15
#16	Preston North End	-0.23
#17	Sheffield United	-0.28
#18	Burnley	-0.33
#19	Bolton Wanderers	-0.55
#20	Charlton Athletic	-0.60
#21	Blackburn Rovers	-0.69
#22	Derby County	-0.75
#23	Stoke City	-0.75
#24	Watford	-0.83

League avg: 0.00
Total: +5.81 12 matches

Expected points Model

1.70 xPts per match

#5/24

Expected points (xPts per match) across Championship, best first
Rank	Club	xPts per match
#1	Middlesbrough	2.10
#2	Wolverhampton	1.97
#3	West Ham United	1.84
#4	Queens Park Rangers	1.72
#5	Southampton	1.70
#6	Birmingham City	1.64
#7	Millwall	1.63
#8	Cardiff City	1.58
#9	Portsmouth	1.51
#10	Swansea City	1.50
#11	Bristol City	1.44
#12	Wrexham	1.41
#13	Lincoln City	1.35
#14	Norwich City	1.33
#15	West Bromwich Albion	1.27
#16	Preston North End	1.19
#17	Sheffield United	1.17
#18	Burnley	1.11
#19	Bolton Wanderers	1.06
#20	Derby County	1.02
#21	Charlton Athletic	0.97
#22	Stoke City	0.94
#23	Blackburn Rovers	0.92
#24	Watford	0.82

League avg: 1.38
Total: 20.41 vs 24 actual pts

What the xG says

Southampton's underlying numbers are among the best in Championship. They rank #5 for xG difference at +0.48 per match, driven by both high shot volume and high chance quality. Their 24 goals are 2.29 above 21.71 xG, while 24 points are 3.59 above 20.41 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected

Goals vs xG Includes 2.26 xG from penalties

24 21.71 +2.29 scored 2.29 more than xG within normal variance

Goals conceded vs xGA

12 15.90 -3.90 conceded 3.90 fewer than xGA within normal variance

Points vs xPts Model

24 20.41 +3.59 3.59 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Southampton are 2.29 goals above their xG after 12 matches. The gap was widest at +5.41, against Bristol City on Sat 12/09.

Goals: 24
xG: 21.71
Gap: +2.29

Southampton: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date	Opponent	Goals	xG	Match gap	Running gap
Sun 16/08	Watford	1	1.71	-0.71	-0.71
Sat 22/08	Stoke City	3	2.32	+0.68	-0.03
Sat 29/08	Millwall	5	3.62	+1.38	+1.35
Tue 01/09	Birmingham City	1	1.02	-0.02	+1.33
Sat 05/09	Lincoln City	1	0.77	+0.23	+1.56
Tue 08/09	Swansea City	3	1.44	+1.56	+3.12
Sat 12/09	Bristol City	4	1.71	+2.29	+5.41
Sat 19/09	Wrexham	1	2.08	-1.08	+4.33
Sun 11/10	Portsmouth	1	1.28	-0.28	+4.05
Wed 14/10	Norwich City	1	2.34	-1.34	+2.71
Sat 17/10	Bolton Wanderers	0	1.87	-1.87	+0.84
Sat 24/10	West Ham United	3	1.55	+1.45	+2.29

Conceded minus xGA, match by match

Southampton have conceded 3.90 fewer than their xGA after 12 matches. The gap was widest at -4.38, against Bolton Wanderers on Sat 17/10.

Conceded: 12
xGA: 15.90
Gap: -3.90

Southampton: Goals conceded vs xGA, the gap after every match with xG
Date	Opponent	Conceded	xGA	Match gap	Running gap
Sun 16/08	Watford	2	0.81	+1.19	+1.19
Sat 22/08	Stoke City	1	0.93	+0.07	+1.26
Sat 29/08	Millwall	1	1.35	-0.35	+0.91
Tue 01/09	Birmingham City	1	1.55	-0.55	+0.36
Sat 05/09	Lincoln City	1	2.27	-1.27	-0.91
Tue 08/09	Swansea City	1	1.22	-0.22	-1.13
Sat 12/09	Bristol City	1	2.24	-1.24	-2.37
Sat 19/09	Wrexham	2	0.54	+1.46	-0.91
Sun 11/10	Portsmouth	0	1.18	-1.18	-2.09
Wed 14/10	Norwich City	0	1.07	-1.07	-3.16
Sat 17/10	Bolton Wanderers	0	1.22	-1.22	-4.38
Sat 24/10	West Ham United	2	1.52	+0.48	-3.90

Points minus xPts, match by match

Southampton are 3.59 points above their xPts after 12 matches.

Points: 24
xPts: 20.41
Gap: +3.59

Southampton: Points vs xPts, the gap after every match with xG
Date	Opponent	Points	xPts	Match gap	Running gap
Sun 16/08	Watford	0	2.10	-2.10	-2.10
Sat 22/08	Stoke City	3	2.35	+0.65	-1.45
Sat 29/08	Millwall	3	2.61	+0.39	-1.06
Tue 01/09	Birmingham City	1	0.93	+0.07	-0.99
Sat 05/09	Lincoln City	1	0.39	+0.61	-0.38
Tue 08/09	Swansea City	3	1.54	+1.46	+1.08
Sat 12/09	Bristol City	3	1.03	+1.97	+3.05
Sat 19/09	Wrexham	0	2.51	-2.51	+0.54
Sun 11/10	Portsmouth	3	1.44	+1.56	+2.10
Wed 14/10	Norwich City	3	2.26	+0.74	+2.84
Sat 17/10	Bolton Wanderers	1	1.86	-0.86	+1.98
Sat 24/10	West Ham United	3	1.39	+1.61	+3.59

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

Southampton xG trend

Current form +0.55 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 9 of 12 matches. The worst was against Lincoln City on Sat 05/09 (-1.49).

npxG · last 6: 1.77
npxGA · last 6: 1.22

Southampton: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date	Opponent	npxG	npxGA	npxGD	Avg so far
Sun 16/08	Watford	1.65	0.82	+0.83	+0.83
Sat 22/08	Stoke City	1.81	0.67	+1.14	+0.99
Sat 29/08	Millwall	2.42	1.09	+1.33	+1.10
Tue 01/09	Birmingham City	0.95	1.21	-0.26	+0.76
Sat 05/09	Lincoln City	0.78	2.27	-1.49	+0.31
Tue 08/09	Swansea City	1.23	0.33	+0.90	+0.41
Sat 12/09	Bristol City	1.37	2.17	-0.80	+0.24
Sat 19/09	Wrexham	1.60	0.62	+0.98	+0.33
Sun 11/10	Portsmouth	1.28	0.72	+0.56	+0.35
Wed 14/10	Norwich City	2.86	1.08	+1.78	+0.50
Sat 17/10	Bolton Wanderers	1.87	1.22	+0.65	+0.51
Sat 24/10	West Ham United	1.63	1.52	+0.11	+0.48

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.62 npxG and 1.14 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far: tied number 11 hardest of 24 in Championship; −0.01 xG vs league average; Over 12 league matches
Last 5: tied number 7 hardest of 24 in Championship; +0.09 xG vs league average; Over 5 league matches

Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.01 xG vs league average · over 12 matches · tied number 11 hardest of 24

West Ham United Away +0.49
Bolton Wanderers Home −0.13
Norwich City Away +0.03
Portsmouth Home +0.09
Wrexham Away −0.02
Bristol City Home −0.12
Swansea City Home +0.08
Lincoln City Away −0.14
Birmingham City Away +0.18
Millwall Home +0.26
Stoke City Home −0.42
Watford Away −0.44

Last 5

+0.09 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 7 hardest of 24

West Ham United Away +0.49
Bolton Wanderers Home −0.13
Norwich City Away +0.03
Portsmouth Home +0.09
Wrexham Away −0.02

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Southampton shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. Southampton take 15.2 shots a match (league 13.7) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #5 in Championship for volume and #6 for quality. 73% of their shots come from inside the box (league 67%), and set pieces produce 16% of their npxG (league 28%).

Attack

Shot volume

15.2 shots per match

#5/24

Shot volume (shots per match) across Championship, best first
Rank	Club	shots per match
#1	Middlesbrough	20.1
#2	West Ham United	17.3
#3	Cardiff City	17.1
#4	Wolverhampton	16.8
#5	Southampton	15.2
#6	Queens Park Rangers	14.8
#7	Portsmouth	14.6
#8	Norwich City	14.1
#9	Millwall	13.9
#10	Burnley	13.8
#11	Bolton Wanderers	13.7
#12	Bristol City	13.5
#13	Birmingham City	13.2
#14	Preston North End	12.7
#15	Derby County	12.6
=16	Lincoln City	12.3
=16	Wrexham	12.3
=18	Watford	12.3
=18	West Bromwich Albion	12.3
#20	Swansea City	11.8
#21	Blackburn Rovers	11.6
#22	Stoke City	11.3
#23	Sheffield United	10.7
#24	Charlton Athletic	10.0

League avg: 13.7
Total: 182 shots from 12 matches

Chance quality

0.11 npxG per shot

#6/24

Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Championship, best first
Rank	Club	npxG per shot
#1	Swansea City	0.12
#2	Millwall	0.12
#3	Birmingham City	0.12
#4	Middlesbrough	0.11
#5	West Ham United	0.11
#6	Southampton	0.11
#7	Sheffield United	0.11
#8	Charlton Athletic	0.10
#9	Queens Park Rangers	0.10
#10	Cardiff City	0.10
#11	West Bromwich Albion	0.10
#12	Preston North End	0.09
#13	Wolverhampton	0.09
#14	Wrexham	0.09
#15	Lincoln City	0.09
#16	Norwich City	0.09
#17	Bristol City	0.09
#18	Bolton Wanderers	0.09
#19	Burnley	0.08
#20	Blackburn Rovers	0.08
#21	Portsmouth	0.08
#22	Watford	0.08
#23	Derby County	0.07
#24	Stoke City	0.07

League avg: 0.10
Total: 19.45 npxG from 182 shots

Defence

Shots allowed

15.8 shots per match

#20/24

Shots allowed (shots per match) across Championship, best first
Rank	Club	shots per match
#1	Wolverhampton	10.3
=2	Portsmouth	10.9
=2	Swansea City	10.9
#4	Middlesbrough	11.1
#5	Queens Park Rangers	11.4
#6	West Ham United	11.8
#7	Bristol City	11.9
#8	Wrexham	12.0
=9	Birmingham City	12.1
=9	Norwich City	12.1
=9	West Bromwich Albion	12.1
#12	Millwall	13.0
#13	Bolton Wanderers	14.3
#14	Cardiff City	14.4
#15	Burnley	14.7
#16	Derby County	15.1
=17	Sheffield United	15.5
=17	Stoke City	15.5
#19	Lincoln City	15.7
#20	Southampton	15.8
#21	Preston North End	16.2
#22	Watford	16.6
#23	Charlton Athletic	17.0
#24	Blackburn Rovers	17.3

League avg: 13.7
Total: 190 shots allowed from 12 matches

Chance quality allowed

0.07 npxGA per shot

#1/24

Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Championship, best first
Rank	Club	npxGA per shot
#1	Southampton	0.07
#2	Charlton Athletic	0.08
#3	Wolverhampton	0.08
#4	Blackburn Rovers	0.08
#5	Lincoln City	0.09
#6	Sheffield United	0.09
#7	Middlesbrough	0.09
#8	West Ham United	0.09
#9	Millwall	0.09
#10	Preston North End	0.09
#11	Stoke City	0.09
#12	Wrexham	0.09
#13	Bristol City	0.09
#14	Queens Park Rangers	0.10
#15	Portsmouth	0.10
#16	Cardiff City	0.10
#17	Burnley	0.10
#18	Birmingham City	0.10
#19	Swansea City	0.10
#20	Watford	0.10
#21	Derby County	0.11
#22	West Bromwich Albion	0.12
#23	Norwich City	0.12
#24	Bolton Wanderers	0.13

League avg: 0.10
Total: 13.72 npxGA from 190 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

73% inside the box

League avg 67%

From 133 of 182 shots over 12 matches

Shots allowed, location

69% allowed inside the box

League avg 67%

From 132 of 190 shots allowed over 12 matches

Where the npxG comes from

84% open play · 16% set pieces

League avg 28% set pieces

From 3.1 of 19.5 npxG over 12 matches

Where the npxG allowed comes from

76% open play · 24% set pieces

League avg 28% set pieces

From 3.2 of 13.7 npxG allowed over 12 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Southampton home and away xG

Southampton per-match figures at home and away
Measure	Home	Away
Matches	6	6
xG / match	2.04	1.58
xGA / match	1.36	1.29
xGD / match	+0.68	+0.29
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →	1.80	1.60

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Southampton match by xG

Window

Season Last 10 Last 5

Venue

All Home Away

Sort

Date xGD

At home this season

Matches: 6
xG / match: 2.04
xGA / match: 1.36
xGD / match: +0.68
Points: 16 of 18

Date Opponent Score xG Chances xGA xGD xPts Model

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.62. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Southampton in Championship

Attack

xG / match #4 of 24
Shots / match #5 of 24
Chance quality #6 of 24
Home xG #3 of 24
Away xG #7 of 24

Defence

xGA / match #10 of 24
Shots allowed #20 of 24
Chance quality allowed #1 of 24

Overall

About the data

xG data: Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics: xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics: xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

Southampton expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Southampton xG and xGA per match

What the xG says

Actual vs expected

Goals minus xG, match by match

Conceded minus xGA, match by match

Points minus xPts, match by match

Southampton xG trend

Strength of schedule

Southampton shots and chance quality

Attack

Defence

Shot profile

Southampton home and away xG

Every Southampton match by xG

Southampton in Championship

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data