ALS Omonia 1:2 AEK Larnaca: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Friday, 18/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Cypriot First Division

ALS Omonia Home 1.42 xG

AEK Larnaca Away 3.21 xG

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

AEK Larnaca were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was AEK Larnaca's attack: 3.21 xG against 1.26 projected (+1.95).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

ALS Omonia: 32%
Draw: 32%
AEK Larnaca: 36% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

ALS Omonia 1.18 1.42 +0.24

AEK Larnaca 1.26 3.21 +1.95

AEK Larnaca produced 1.95 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

ALS Omonia AEK Larnaca

Shots: 7; 18
On target: 4; 10
Inside the box: 3; 18
xG per shot: 0.20; 0.18

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

ALS Omonia

1.57 xG created 1.62 xGA

W 0.87 created, 1.78 conceded against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
D 2.27 created, 1.45 conceded against Karmiotissa Polemidion

AEK Larnaca

1.34 xG created 1.78 xGA

W 1.13 created, 1.38 conceded against Apollon Limassol
D 0.84 created, 2.60 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
D 1.56 created, 1.90 conceded against Pafos FC
W 0.44 created, 1.51 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
W 2.70 created, 0.94 conceded against Nea Salamina Famagusta
L 1.35 created, 2.37 conceded against Pafos FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
ALS Omonia sample: 1 match
AEK Larnaca sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off

Warnings

ALS Omonia has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.