Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeAnorthosis Famagusta 2:1 APOEL Nicosia
APOEL Nicosia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. Anorthosis Famagusta won 2–1. The biggest difference was Anorthosis Famagusta's attack: 1.81 xG against 0.83 projected (+0.98). APOEL Nicosia produced 0.56 xG against 1.24 projected (−0.68).
The model against the result
- Anorthosis Famagusta
- 22% What happened
- Draw
- 34%
- APOEL Nicosia
- 44%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Anorthosis Famagusta produced 0.98 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 8
- On target
- 5
- 3
- Inside the box
- 8
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.16
- 0.07
Recent form
1.35 xG created 1.79 xGA
- D 1.03 created, 1.25 conceded against Omonia Aradippou
- W 1.80 created, 0.05 conceded against Enosis Neon Paralimniou
- W 3.25 created, 1.47 conceded against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
- L 0.49 created, 3.88 conceded against Olympiakos Nicosia
- L 0.51 created, 1.73 conceded against AEL Limassol
- L 1.02 created, 2.33 conceded against Apollon Limassol
1.14 xG created 0.96 xGA
- W 0.65 created, 0.81 conceded against AEK Larnaca
- L 1.28 created, 1.46 conceded against Aris Limassol
- L 0.10 created, 1.38 conceded against Apollon Limassol
- L 0.86 created, 1.57 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
- L 1.51 created, 0.44 conceded against AEK Larnaca
- W 2.45 created, 0.08 conceded against AEL Limassol
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.60 | +21.4% | Lost |
| APOEL Nicosia at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +17.3% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.73 | +13.1% | Lost |
| APOEL Nicosia not to score | 4.33 | +12.1% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.20 | +10.1% | Lost |
| Anorthosis Famagusta at most 1 goal | 1.25 | +0.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anorthosis Famagusta | 21.8% | 21.7% | +0.1 pp | 4.58 |
| Draw | 33.7% | 25.4% | +8.3 pp | 2.97 |
| APOEL Nicosia | 44.5% | 52.9% | −8.4 pp | 2.25 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anorthosis Famagusta to score | 59.1% | 58.9% | +0.2 pp | 1.69 |
| Anorthosis Famagusta not to score | 40.9% | 41.1% | −0.2 pp | 2.45 |
| APOEL Nicosia to score | 74.1% | 78.3% | −4.2 pp | 1.35 |
| APOEL Nicosia not to score | 25.9% | 21.7% | +4.2 pp | 3.87 |
| Both teams to score | 45.8% | 50.0% | −4.2 pp | 2.18 |
| Both teams not to score | 54.2% | 50.0% | +4.2 pp | 1.84 |
| Anorthosis Famagusta 2+ goals | 19.7% | 25.0% | −5.3 pp | 5.08 |
| Anorthosis Famagusta at most 1 goal | 80.3% | 75.0% | +5.3 pp | 1.25 |
| APOEL Nicosia 2+ goals | 36.0% | 50.0% | −14.0 pp | 2.78 |
| APOEL Nicosia at most 1 goal | 64.0% | 50.0% | +14.0 pp | 1.56 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.6% | 71.1% | −5.5 pp | 1.52 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 28.9% | +5.5 pp | 2.91 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.5% | 46.3% | −11.9 pp | 2.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 65.5% | 53.7% | +11.9 pp | 1.53 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Anorthosis Famagusta sample
- 20 matches
- APOEL Nicosia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.