Friday, 16/10/2026 at 20:00
12d 18h to kick-offOmonia Aradippou – AEL Limassol
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Omonia Aradippou
- 39%
- Draw
- 31%
- AEL Limassol
- 30%
| Omonia Aradippou | Draw | AEL Limassol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.57 | 3.22 | 3.33 |
- Total goals
- 2.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Omonia Aradippou
39% Omonia Aradippou to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 6th
- Omonia Aradippou attack v AEL Limassol defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 10th
- Omonia Aradippou defence v AEL Limassol attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.19 vs -0.42
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.38 – 1.20
- Omonia Aradippou v AEL Limassol
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Omonia Aradippou | AEL Limassol |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.61 · 6th from 4 matches | 1.46 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.96 · 11th from 4 matches | (better) 1.42 · 5th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.36 · 10th from 4 matches | (better) +0.04 · 8th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.16 · 9th from 4 matches | (better) 1.51 · 7th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.19 | -0.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Omonia Aradippou clean sheet
- 27%
- Omonia Aradippou 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:2
- 8.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Omonia Aradippou sample
- 20 matches
- AEL Limassol sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Omonia Aradippou
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · AEL Limassol
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.