Omonia Aradippou 1:1 Olympiakos Nicosia: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Cypriot First Division

Omonia Aradippou Home 1.71 xG

Olympiakos Nicosia Away 2.21 xG

11 Olympiakos Nicosia had the better chances, but it finished level

Omonia Aradippou were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Olympiakos Nicosia's attack: 2.21 xG against 1.01 projected (+1.20). Omonia Aradippou produced 1.71 xG against 1.40 projected (+0.31).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Omonia Aradippou: 44%
Draw: 32% What happened
Olympiakos Nicosia: 24%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Omonia Aradippou 1.40 1.71 +0.31

Olympiakos Nicosia 1.01 2.21 +1.20

Olympiakos Nicosia produced 1.20 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Omonia Aradippou Olympiakos Nicosia

Shots: 13; 12
On target: 3; 5
Inside the box: 7; 8
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.18

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Omonia Aradippou

1.49 xG created 1.55 xGA

L 0.79 created, 0.52 conceded against Olympiakos Nicosia
W 1.87 created, 1.54 conceded against Akritas Chlorakas
W 1.55 created, 1.58 conceded against Ethnikos Achnas
D 0.95 created, 2.96 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
W 0.94 created, 1.35 conceded against Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
D 2.83 created, 1.33 conceded against Karmiotissa Polemidion

Olympiakos Nicosia

1.57 xG created 1.25 xGA

L 1.19 created, 2.24 conceded against Akritas Chlorakas
W 0.52 created, 0.79 conceded against Omonia Aradippou
W 0.97 created, 1.12 conceded against AEL Limassol
W 3.88 created, 0.49 conceded against Anorthosis Famagusta
D 1.65 created, 1.49 conceded against Nea Salamina Famagusta
D 1.21 created, 1.36 conceded against Pafos FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Omonia Aradippou: 0 won · 1 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Omonia Aradippou against Olympiakos Nicosia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Omonia Aradippou to win	2.45	+8.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Omonia Aradippou	44.1%	37.5%	+6.6 pp	2.27
Draw	31.5%	29.7%	+1.8 pp	3.17
Olympiakos Nicosia	24.4%	32.8%	−8.4 pp	4.10

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.8%	50.0%	+3.8 pp	1.86
Both teams not to score	46.2%	50.0%	−3.8 pp	2.16
Over 1.5 goals	73.7%	71.1%	+2.5 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.3%	28.9%	−2.5 pp	3.80
Over 2.5 goals	44.1%	44.3%	−0.2 pp	2.27
Under 2.5 goals	55.9%	55.7%	+0.2 pp	1.79

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Omonia Aradippou sample: 20 matches
Olympiakos Nicosia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.