Pafos FC 0:0 Olympiakos Nicosia: xG & match report · Cypriot First Division

Monday, 07/09/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Cypriot First Division

Pafos FC Home 1.36 xG

Olympiakos Nicosia Away 1.21 xG

00 The chances were evenly matched

Pafos FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 56%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Olympiakos Nicosia's attack: 1.21 xG against 0.83 projected (+0.38). Pafos FC produced 1.36 xG against 1.64 projected (−0.28).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Pafos FC: 56%
Draw: 28% What happened
Olympiakos Nicosia: 16%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Pafos FC 1.64 1.36 -0.28

Olympiakos Nicosia 0.83 1.21 +0.38

Olympiakos Nicosia produced 0.38 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Pafos FC Olympiakos Nicosia

Shots: 19; 9
On target: 6; 2
Inside the box: 7; 5
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Pafos FC

1.80 xG created 1.52 xGA

D 1.92 created, 1.54 conceded against APOEL Nicosia
L 0.93 created, 0.89 conceded against Apollon Limassol
L 1.91 created, 2.05 conceded against Omonia Nicosia
W 1.34 created, 0.85 conceded against Aris Limassol
D 1.90 created, 1.56 conceded against AEK Larnaca
W 2.78 created, 2.20 conceded against Karmiotissa Polemidion

Olympiakos Nicosia

1.62 xG created 1.17 xGA

W 1.52 created, 0.89 conceded against Enosis Neon Paralimniou
L 1.19 created, 2.24 conceded against Akritas Chlorakas
W 0.52 created, 0.79 conceded against Omonia Aradippou
W 0.97 created, 1.12 conceded against AEL Limassol
W 3.88 created, 0.49 conceded against Anorthosis Famagusta
D 1.65 created, 1.49 conceded against Nea Salamina Famagusta

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Pafos FC: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost

Won
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Pafos FC against Olympiakos Nicosia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.75	+33.7%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.30	+24.7%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+9.6%	Won
Olympiakos Nicosia to win	6.50	+2.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Pafos FC	56.1%	66.5%	−10.5 pp	1.78
Draw	28.1%	19.3%	+8.8 pp	3.55
Olympiakos Nicosia	15.8%	14.1%	+1.7 pp	6.33

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.7%	50.0%	+0.7 pp	1.97
Both teams not to score	49.3%	50.0%	−0.7 pp	2.03
Over 1.5 goals	74.7%	78.3%	−3.6 pp	1.34
Under 1.5 goals	25.3%	21.7%	+3.6 pp	3.95
Over 2.5 goals	45.8%	59.0%	−13.2 pp	2.18
Under 2.5 goals	54.2%	41.0%	+13.2 pp	1.85

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Pafos FC sample: 20 matches
Olympiakos Nicosia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.