Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 18:00
28d 11h to kick-offOmonia Aradippou – APOEL Nicosia
Model updated 4 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Omonia Aradippou
- 28%
- Draw
- 32%
- APOEL Nicosia
- 40%
| Omonia Aradippou | Draw | APOEL Nicosia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.61 | 3.08 | 2.51 |
- Total goals
- 2.35
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans APOEL Nicosia
40% APOEL Nicosia to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 11th
- APOEL Nicosia attack v Omonia Aradippou defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 6th
- APOEL Nicosia defence v Omonia Aradippou attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.20 vs -0.19
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.06 – 1.29
- Omonia Aradippou v APOEL Nicosia
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Omonia Aradippou | APOEL Nicosia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.61 · 6th from 4 matches | 1.47 · 8th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.96 · 11th from 4 matches | (better) 0.68 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.36 · 10th from 4 matches | (better) +0.80 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.16 · 9th from 4 matches | (better) 1.97 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.19 | (better) +0.20 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- APOEL Nicosia clean sheet
- 32%
- APOEL Nicosia 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.7%
- 0:1
- 10.0%
- 1:2
- 9.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Omonia Aradippou sample
- 20 matches
- APOEL Nicosia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Omonia Aradippou
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · APOEL Nicosia
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.