xgEdge

Expected goals

Mladá Boleslav expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Czech First League · after 8 matches · updated 1 Oct

Mladá Boleslav's attacking and defensive expected goals in Czech First League 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Mladá Boleslav xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.45 xG per match
#4/16
Attack (xG per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 2.38
#2 AC Sparta Praha 1.66
#3 FC Slovan Liberec 1.66
#4 Mladá Boleslav 1.45
#5 Viktoria Plzeň 1.43
#6 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.39
#7 Baník Ostrava 1.34
#8 FK Pardubice 1.34
#9 FK Jablonec 1.32
#10 FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.24
#11 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.23
#12 FK Teplice 1.20
#13 SK Líšeň 1.05
#14 FC Hradec Králové 1.03
#15 1. FC Slovácko 0.92
#16 FC Zlín 0.87
League avg
1.34
Total
11.56 8 matches
Defence
2.06 xGA per match
#16/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Slovan Liberec 0.86
#2 FK Jablonec 1.01
#3 SK Slavia Praha 1.02
#4 FC Hradec Králové 1.05
#5 Viktoria Plzeň 1.10
#6 FK Pardubice 1.20
#7 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.21
#8 AC Sparta Praha 1.25
#9 FK Teplice 1.28
#10 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.37
#11 SK Líšeň 1.42
#12 FC Zlín 1.44
#13 FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.52
#14 1. FC Slovácko 1.88
#15 Baník Ostrava 1.89
#16 Mladá Boleslav 2.06
League avg
1.34
Total
16.49 8 matches
xG difference
-0.62 xGD per match
#15/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha +1.36
#2 FC Slovan Liberec +0.80
#3 AC Sparta Praha +0.41
#4 Viktoria Plzeň +0.32
#5 FK Jablonec +0.31
#6 FK Pardubice +0.14
#7 SK Sigma Olomouc +0.02
#8 Bohemians Praha 1905 +0.02
#9 FC Hradec Králové -0.02
#10 FK Teplice -0.08
#11 FC Zbrojovka Brno -0.28
#12 SK Líšeň -0.37
#13 Baník Ostrava -0.55
#14 FC Zlín -0.57
#15 Mladá Boleslav -0.62
#16 1. FC Slovácko -0.96
League avg
0.00
Total
-4.93 8 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.03 xPts per match
#13/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 2.11
#2 FC Slovan Liberec 1.90
#3 AC Sparta Praha 1.68
#4 Viktoria Plzeň 1.61
#5 FK Jablonec 1.59
#6 FK Pardubice 1.46
#7 FC Hradec Králové 1.39
#8 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.39
#9 FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.33
#10 Bohemians Praha 1905 1.31
#11 FK Teplice 1.30
#12 SK Líšeň 1.11
#13 Mladá Boleslav 1.03
#14 Baník Ostrava 1.02
#15 FC Zlín 0.90
#16 1. FC Slovácko 0.88
League avg
1.38
Total
8.21 vs 17 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 8 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Mladá Boleslav's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Czech First League. They rank #15 for xG difference at -0.62 per match, built on elite chance quality rather than about average shot volume. Their 17 goals are 5.44 above 11.56 xG, while 17 points are 8.79 above 8.21 xPts. After only 8 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.73 xG from penalties
17 11.56 +5.44 scored 5.44 more than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
9 16.49 -7.49 conceded 7.49 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
17 8.21 +8.79 8.79 points above xPts far outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Mladá Boleslav are 5.44 goals above their xG after 8 matches.

Goals
17
xG
11.56
Gap
+5.44
Mon 27/07 Sun 02/08 Sat 08/08 Sat 15/08 Sat 22/08 Sun 06/09 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +1.83 +2.66 +3.17 +3.42 +4.26 +5.16 +4.47 +5.44 +1.83 +0.83 +0.51 +0.25 +0.84 +0.90 -0.69 +0.97 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Mladá Boleslav: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Mon 27/07 SK Líšeň 4 2.17 +1.83 +1.83
Sun 02/08 SK Sigma Olomouc 2 1.17 +0.83 +2.66
Sat 08/08 AC Sparta Praha 2 1.49 +0.51 +3.17
Sat 15/08 FK Pardubice 1 0.75 +0.25 +3.42
Sat 22/08 1. FC Slovácko 2 1.16 +0.84 +4.26
Sun 06/09 Baník Ostrava 4 3.10 +0.90 +5.16
Sat 12/09 FC Slovan Liberec 0 0.69 -0.69 +4.47
Sat 19/09 FC Zbrojovka Brno 2 1.03 +0.97 +5.44

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

Mladá Boleslav xG trend

Current form -0.64 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 8 matches. The worst was against FC Slovan Liberec on Sat 12/09 (-2.57).

npxG · last 6
1.24
npxGA · last 6
1.88
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +0.64 Mon 27/07 -1.30 Sun 02/08 -0.07 Sat 08/08 -0.62 Sat 15/08 -0.52 Sat 22/08 +0.66 Sun 06/09 -2.57 Sat 12/09 -0.69 Sat 19/09 -0.56 season avg
Mladá Boleslav: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Mon 27/07 SK Líšeň 2.21 1.57 +0.64 +0.64
Sun 02/08 SK Sigma Olomouc 1.18 2.48 -1.30 -0.33
Sat 08/08 AC Sparta Praha 0.70 0.77 -0.07 -0.24
Sat 15/08 FK Pardubice 0.75 1.37 -0.62 -0.34
Sat 22/08 1. FC Slovácko 1.18 1.70 -0.52 -0.37
Sun 06/09 Baník Ostrava 3.10 2.44 +0.66 -0.20
Sat 12/09 FC Slovan Liberec 0.68 3.25 -2.57 -0.54
Sat 19/09 FC Zbrojovka Brno 1.03 1.72 -0.69 -0.56

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.35 npxG and 1.91 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 12 hardest of 16 in Czech First League
−0.04 xG vs league average
Over 8 league matches
Last 5
tied number 12 hardest of 16 in Czech First League
−0.08 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.04 xG vs league average · over 8 matches · tied number 12 hardest of 16

  1. FC Zbrojovka Brno Home −0.12
  2. FC Slovan Liberec Away +0.30
  3. Baník Ostrava Home −0.24
  4. 1. FC Slovácko Home −0.30
  5. FK Pardubice Away −0.03
  6. AC Sparta Praha Home +0.37
  7. SK Sigma Olomouc Away +0.01
  8. SK Líšeň Away −0.32

Last 5

−0.08 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 12 hardest of 16

  1. FC Zbrojovka Brno Home −0.12
  2. FC Slovan Liberec Away +0.30
  3. Baník Ostrava Home −0.24
  4. 1. FC Slovácko Home −0.30
  5. FK Pardubice Away −0.03

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Mladá Boleslav shots and chance quality

Average volume, high quality. Mladá Boleslav take 12.0 shots a match (league 13.2) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.10), =10 in Czech First League for volume and #2 for quality. 60% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 14% of their npxG (league 26%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.0 shots per match
=10/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 17.3
#2 AC Sparta Praha 16.6
#3 FC Slovan Liberec 16.2
#4 FK Jablonec 15.7
#5 FK Teplice 14.5
#6 Viktoria Plzeň 14.0
#7 FK Pardubice 13.0
#8 Bohemians Praha 1905 12.6
#9 Baník Ostrava 12.4
=10 FC Hradec Králové 12.0
=10 Mladá Boleslav 12.0
#12 FC Zlín 11.9
#13 FC Zbrojovka Brno 11.8
#14 1. FC Slovácko 11.0
#15 SK Sigma Olomouc 10.8
#16 SK Líšeň 9.8
League avg
13.2
Total
96 shots from 8 matches
Chance quality
0.11 npxG per shot
#2/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SK Slavia Praha 0.13
#2 Mladá Boleslav 0.11
#3 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.11
#4 SK Líšeň 0.11
#5 FC Slovan Liberec 0.11
#6 FK Pardubice 0.10
#7 FC Zbrojovka Brno 0.10
#8 Baník Ostrava 0.10
#9 AC Sparta Praha 0.10
#10 Bohemians Praha 1905 0.09
#11 FK Jablonec 0.09
#12 FC Hradec Králové 0.09
#13 Viktoria Plzeň 0.08
#14 1. FC Slovácko 0.08
#15 FK Teplice 0.08
#16 FC Zlín 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
10.83 npxG from 96 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
17.8 shots per match
#16/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 SK Slavia Praha 10.7
#2 FC Slovan Liberec 10.8
#3 AC Sparta Praha 11.6
#4 FK Jablonec 11.7
#5 1. FC Slovácko 12.2
=6 SK Sigma Olomouc 12.4
=6 Viktoria Plzeň 12.4
#8 FC Zbrojovka Brno 13.0
#9 FK Pardubice 13.3
#10 Bohemians Praha 1905 13.6
#11 FC Hradec Králové 13.9
#12 FK Teplice 14.6
#13 Baník Ostrava 14.7
#14 FC Zlín 14.9
#15 SK Líšeň 15.0
#16 Mladá Boleslav 17.8
League avg
13.2
Total
142 shots allowed from 8 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#13/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Czech First League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FC Slovan Liberec 0.07
#2 FC Hradec Králové 0.08
#3 FK Jablonec 0.08
#4 Viktoria Plzeň 0.08
#5 FK Pardubice 0.09
#6 FC Zlín 0.09
#7 FK Teplice 0.09
#8 SK Líšeň 0.09
#9 SK Sigma Olomouc 0.09
#10 SK Slavia Praha 0.10
#11 AC Sparta Praha 0.10
#12 Bohemians Praha 1905 0.10
#13 Mladá Boleslav 0.11
#14 FC Zbrojovka Brno 0.12
#15 Baník Ostrava 0.13
#16 1. FC Slovácko 0.14
League avg
0.10
Total
15.30 npxGA from 142 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

60% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 58 of 96 shots over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

68% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 96 of 142 shots allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

86% open play · 14% set pieces

League avg 26% set pieces

From 1.5 of 10.9 npxG over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

82% open play · 18% set pieces

League avg 26% set pieces

From 2.8 of 15.3 npxG allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Mladá Boleslav home and away xG

Mladá Boleslav per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 4
xG / match 1.70 1.20
xGA / match 1.97 2.15
xGD / match -0.27 -0.96
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.23 0.83

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Mladá Boleslav match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
1.35
xGA / match
2.33
xGD / match
-0.99
Points
10 of 15
  1. Sat 19/09 FC Zbrojovka Brno H Against the chances xG 1.03 xGA 2.49 P xGD -1.46
  2. Sat 12/09 FC Slovan Liberec A Weakest underlying xG 0.69 xGA 3.19 xGD -2.50
  3. Sun 06/09 Baník Ostrava H Best underlying xG 3.10 xGA 2.44 xGD +0.66
  4. Sat 22/08 1. FC Slovácko H Against the chances xG 1.16 xGA 2.18 xGD -1.02
  5. Sat 15/08 FK Pardubice A xG 0.75 xGA 1.37 xGD -0.62

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.19. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Mladá Boleslav in Czech First League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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