Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:00
13d 11h to kick-offMladá Boleslav – FK Teplice
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Mladá Boleslav
- 39%
- Draw
- 29%
- FK Teplice
- 32%
| Mladá Boleslav | Draw | FK Teplice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.57 | 3.46 | 3.12 |
- Total goals
- 2.92
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Mladá Boleslav
39% Mladá Boleslav to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 12th
- Mladá Boleslav attack v FK Teplice defence
- Defence
- 16th vs 11th
- Mladá Boleslav defence v FK Teplice attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.70 vs -0.40
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.53 – 1.39
- Mladá Boleslav v FK Teplice
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Mladá Boleslav | FK Teplice |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.45 · 4th | 1.20 · 12th |
| xGA / match | 2.06 · 16th | (better) 1.28 · 9th |
| xGD / match | -0.62 · 15th | (better) -0.08 · 10th |
| xPts / match | 1.03 · 13th | (better) 1.30 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.70 | (better) -0.40 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Mladá Boleslav clean sheet
- 22%
- Mladá Boleslav 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.1%
- 2:1
- 10.2%
- 1:2
- 9.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Mladá Boleslav sample
- 20 matches
- FK Teplice sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Mladá Boleslav
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Teplice
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.