FK Teplice 0:2 SK Slavia Praha: xG & match report · Czech First League

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Czech First League

FK Teplice Home 1.00 xG · 12 shots

SK Slavia Praha Away 1.21 xG · 15 shots

02 The chances were evenly matched

SK Slavia Praha were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was SK Slavia Praha's attack: 1.21 xG against 1.86 projected (−0.65).

Goals

20' Wiktor Nowak SK Slavia Praha · 0.18 xG chance 0–1
81' Oskars Vientiess (o.g.) SK Slavia Praha · 0.10 xG chance 0–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Teplice: 20%
Draw: 26%
SK Slavia Praha: 53% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Teplice 1.15 1.00 -0.15

SK Slavia Praha 1.86 1.21 -0.65

SK Slavia Praha produced 0.65 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Teplice SK Slavia Praha

Shots: 12; 15
On target: 2; 8
Inside the box: 6; 8
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.94; 1.26
Set-piece xG: 0.06; 0.13
Penalties: —; —

SK Slavia Praha's shots add up to 1.39 xG; the published figure is 1.21.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 2.39 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FK Teplice
SK Slavia Praha
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Teplice

1.03 xG created 1.38 xGA

W 0.90 created, 0.88 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
D 1.47 created, 2.49 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
L 0.82 created, 2.12 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
L 0.82 created, 0.69 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
W 0.79 created, 1.15 conceded against FK Jablonec
W 1.35 created, 0.96 conceded against FC Zlín

SK Slavia Praha

2.44 xG created 1.13 xGA

W 2.19 created, 0.70 conceded against Baník Ostrava
W 2.86 created, 0.66 conceded against FK Pardubice
D 0.67 created, 1.48 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
D 2.74 created, 0.81 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
W 1.83 created, 2.34 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
W 4.33 created, 0.79 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FK Teplice: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Teplice against SK Slavia Praha before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FK Teplice 2+ goals	3.75	+20.9%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.80	+13.6%	Lost
FK Teplice to score	1.57	+11.6%	Lost
FK Teplice to win	5.25	+7.4%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.75	+4.6%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+2.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Teplice	20.5%	17.3%	+3.1 pp	4.89
Draw	26.3%	23.9%	+2.3 pp	3.80
SK Slavia Praha	53.2%	58.7%	−5.5 pp	1.88

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Teplice to score	71.1%	58.9%	+12.2 pp	1.41
FK Teplice not to score	28.9%	41.1%	−12.2 pp	3.46
SK Slavia Praha to score	86.8%	84.2%	+2.6 pp	1.15
SK Slavia Praha not to score	13.2%	15.8%	−2.6 pp	7.56
Both teams to score	63.1%	52.0%	+11.1 pp	1.58
Both teams not to score	36.9%	48.0%	−11.1 pp	2.71
FK Teplice 2+ goals	32.2%	25.0%	+7.2 pp	3.10
FK Teplice at most 1 goal	67.8%	75.0%	−7.2 pp	1.48
SK Slavia Praha 2+ goals	57.6%	57.7%	−0.0 pp	1.74
SK Slavia Praha at most 1 goal	42.4%	42.3%	+0.0 pp	2.36
Over 1.5 goals	84.1%	76.6%	+7.5 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	15.9%	23.4%	−7.5 pp	6.28
Over 2.5 goals	59.8%	53.9%	+5.8 pp	1.67
Under 2.5 goals	40.2%	46.1%	−5.8 pp	2.48

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Teplice sample: 20 matches
SK Slavia Praha sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.