Legia Warszawa 1:1 Widzew Łódź: xG & match report · Ekstraklasa

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 17:30

Full time

Match report · Ekstraklasa

Legia Warszawa Home 1.46 xG · 15 shots

Widzew Łódź Away 1.60 xG · 13 shots

11 The chances were evenly matched

Legia Warszawa were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Widzew Łódź's attack: 1.60 xG against 0.97 projected (+0.63).

Goals

19' Rafał Augustyniak Legia Warszawa · 0.03 xG chance 1–0
21' Kamil Piątkowski (o.g.) Widzew Łódź · 0.10 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Legia Warszawa: 46%
Draw: 31% What happened
Widzew Łódź: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Legia Warszawa 1.43 1.46 +0.03

Widzew Łódź 0.97 1.60 +0.63

Widzew Łódź produced 0.63 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Legia Warszawa Widzew Łódź

Shots: 15; 13
On target: 2; 3
Inside the box: 7; 10
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.14
Open play xG: 1.20; 1.64
Set-piece xG: 0.27; 0.15
Penalties: —; —

Legia Warszawa's shots add up to 1.47 xG and Widzew Łódź's to 1.79; the published figures are 1.46 and 1.60.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 3.26 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Legia Warszawa
Widzew Łódź
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Legia Warszawa

1.52 xG created 1.08 xGA

W 1.70 created, 1.03 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
D 0.69 created, 0.73 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
W 1.68 created, 0.38 conceded against Radomiak Radom
D 0.98 created, 1.10 conceded against Piast Gliwice
D 1.82 created, 1.76 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
W 2.26 created, 1.48 conceded against Motor Lublin

Widzew Łódź

1.48 xG created 1.69 xGA

D 1.79 created, 1.54 conceded against Wisła Płock
W 1.10 created, 1.08 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
L 2.31 created, 2.09 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
D 1.29 created, 1.83 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
L 0.80 created, 1.89 conceded against Lech Poznań
D 1.59 created, 1.69 conceded against Radomiak Radom

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Legia Warszawa: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged2 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Legia Warszawa against Widzew Łódź before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.50	+9.3%	Won
Legia Warszawa at most 1 goal	1.83	+4.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Legia Warszawa	46.1%	52.0%	−5.8 pp	2.17
Draw	31.2%	26.7%	+4.5 pp	3.20
Widzew Łódź	22.6%	21.3%	+1.4 pp	4.42

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Legia Warszawa to score	78.7%	79.2%	−0.5 pp	1.27
Legia Warszawa not to score	21.3%	20.8%	+0.5 pp	4.70
Widzew Łódź to score	65.3%	62.5%	+2.8 pp	1.53
Widzew Łódź not to score	34.7%	37.5%	−2.8 pp	2.88
Both teams to score	53.3%	52.0%	+1.3 pp	1.88
Both teams not to score	46.7%	48.0%	−1.3 pp	2.14
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals	43.1%	50.0%	−6.9 pp	2.32
Legia Warszawa at most 1 goal	56.9%	50.0%	+6.9 pp	1.76
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals	25.1%	26.9%	−1.7 pp	3.98
Widzew Łódź at most 1 goal	74.9%	73.1%	+1.7 pp	1.34
Over 1.5 goals	73.6%	70.9%	+2.7 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.4%	29.1%	−2.7 pp	3.78
Over 2.5 goals	44.0%	46.1%	−2.1 pp	2.27
Under 2.5 goals	56.0%	53.9%	+2.1 pp	1.79

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Legia Warszawa sample: 20 matches
Widzew Łódź sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.