Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 20:15
Full timeMotor Lublin 2:3 Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Legia Warszawa's attack: 2.26 xG against 1.39 projected (+0.87). Motor Lublin produced 1.48 xG against 1.14 projected (+0.34).
Goals
- 45' Rafał Augustyniak (pen.) Legia Warszawa · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
- 65' Karol Czubak Motor Lublin · 0.21 xG chance 1–1
- 68' Karol Czubak Motor Lublin · 0.08 xG chance 2–1
- 90' Jakub Żewłakow Legia Warszawa · 0.75 xG chance 2–2
- 90' Jakub Żewłakow Legia Warszawa · 0.26 xG chance 2–3
The model against the result
- Motor Lublin
- 28%
- Draw
- 31%
- Legia Warszawa
- 41% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Legia Warszawa produced 0.87 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 10
- On target
- 6
- 6
- Inside the box
- 10
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.25
- Open play xG
- 1.45
- 0.74
- Set-piece xG
- 0.06
- 0.96
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.53 for Motor Lublin and 1.72 for Legia Warszawa.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 4.03 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Motor Lublin
- Legia Warszawa
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.45 xG created 1.55 xGA
- D 1.15 created, 2.49 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- L 2.01 created, 0.89 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- L 0.92 created, 2.35 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- W 2.92 created, 1.10 conceded against GKS Katowice
- D 0.68 created, 0.88 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
- L 1.01 created, 1.57 conceded against Piast Gliwice
1.65 xG created 1.01 xGA
- W 3.02 created, 1.08 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- W 1.70 created, 1.03 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- D 0.69 created, 0.73 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
- W 1.68 created, 0.38 conceded against Radomiak Radom
- D 0.98 created, 1.10 conceded against Piast Gliwice
- D 1.82 created, 1.76 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.60 | +12.1% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | +7.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motor Lublin | 28.1% | 27.7% | +0.4 pp | 3.56 |
| Draw | 31.1% | 25.4% | +5.7 pp | 3.21 |
| Legia Warszawa | 40.8% | 46.9% | −6.1 pp | 2.45 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 55.7% | +1.2 pp | 1.76 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.0% | 44.3% | −1.2 pp | 2.32 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% | 76.6% | −0.4 pp | 1.31 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.8% | 23.4% | +0.4 pp | 4.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | 53.9% | −6.5 pp | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 46.1% | +6.5 pp | 1.90 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Motor Lublin sample
- 20 matches
- Legia Warszawa sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.