Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 17:30
Full timeMKS Korona Kielce 1:1 Wisła Kraków
Wisła Kraków were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. It finished 1–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 24' Ondrej Lingr MKS Korona Kielce · 0.04 xG chance 1–0
- 90' Alan Uryga Wisła Kraków · 0.24 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- MKS Korona Kielce
- 33%
- Draw
- 30% What happened
- Wisła Kraków
- 37%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 9
- 21
- On target
- 5
- 3
- Inside the box
- 7
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 1.03
- 1.17
- Set-piece xG
- 0.14
- 0.16
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.14 for MKS Korona Kielce and 1.35 for Wisła Kraków.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 2.50 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- MKS Korona Kielce
- Wisła Kraków
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.94 xG created 1.42 xGA
- D 0.25 created, 1.41 conceded against Cracovia
- L 0.77 created, 1.16 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- D 0.73 created, 0.69 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- W 2.09 created, 2.31 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- D 0.88 created, 0.68 conceded against Motor Lublin
- W 0.92 created, 2.25 conceded against Wisła Płock
2.06 xG created 1.30 xGA
- W 2.76 created, 1.20 conceded against GKS Katowice
- L 3.61 created, 1.79 conceded against Piast Gliwice
- W 1.78 created, 1.49 conceded against Wisła Płock
- L 1.69 created, 0.60 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
- D 0.86 created, 1.32 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- W 1.64 created, 1.38 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisła Kraków to win | 3.00 | +11.4% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +0.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKS Korona Kielce | 33.0% | 41.7% | −8.6 pp | 3.03 |
| Draw | 29.8% | 27.8% | +2.0 pp | 3.35 |
| Wisła Kraków | 37.1% | 30.6% | +6.6 pp | 2.69 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 62.0% | 57.7% | +4.4 pp | 1.61 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.0% | 42.3% | −4.4 pp | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% | 76.6% | +4.0 pp | 1.24 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.4% | 23.4% | −4.0 pp | 5.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 52.6% | +1.3 pp | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 47.4% | −1.3 pp | 2.17 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MKS Korona Kielce sample
- 20 matches
- Wisła Kraków sample
- 6 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Wisła Kraków has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.