Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 12:15
Full timeWisła Płock 3:1 Cracovia
Cracovia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. Wisła Płock won 3–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 10' Patryk Kun Wisła Płock · 0.40 xG chance 1–0
- 61' Sebastian Madejski (o.g.) Wisła Płock · 0.12 xG chance 2–0
- 69' Mohamed Berte Cracovia · 0.16 xG chance 2–1
- 70' Samuel Akere Wisła Płock · 0.07 xG chance 3–1
The model against the result
- Wisła Płock
- 33% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- Cracovia
- 36%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 8
- On target
- 6
- 1
- Inside the box
- 10
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.14
- Open play xG
- 1.41
- 0.54
- Set-piece xG
- 0.13
- 0.59
- Penalties
- —
- —
Wisła Płock's shots add up to 1.54 xG and Cracovia's to 1.13; the published figures are 1.48 and 1.14.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
25 shots · 2.67 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Wisła Płock
- Cracovia
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.59 xG created 1.81 xGA
- W 0.86 created, 1.46 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
- D 1.54 created, 1.79 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- L 1.49 created, 1.78 conceded against Wisła Kraków
- L 1.73 created, 2.90 conceded against GKS Katowice
- L 2.25 created, 0.92 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
- D 1.67 created, 1.99 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
1.65 xG created 1.31 xGA
- L 1.15 created, 0.93 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- D 1.48 created, 0.75 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
- W 2.74 created, 0.85 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
- W 2.08 created, 1.98 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
- L 2.02 created, 1.89 conceded against Radomiak Radom
- L 0.45 created, 1.44 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.40 | +5.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +3.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisła Płock | 33.5% | 36.2% | −2.7 pp | 2.99 |
| Draw | 30.9% | 27.7% | +3.3 pp | 3.23 |
| Cracovia | 35.6% | 36.2% | −0.6 pp | 2.81 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisła Płock to score | 74.9% | 73.1% | +1.8 pp | 1.33 |
| Wisła Płock not to score | 25.1% | 26.9% | −1.8 pp | 3.99 |
| Cracovia to score | 76.1% | 73.1% | +3.0 pp | 1.31 |
| Cracovia not to score | 23.9% | 26.9% | −3.0 pp | 4.19 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 53.3% | +5.5 pp | 1.70 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.1% | 46.7% | −5.5 pp | 2.43 |
| Wisła Płock 2+ goals | 37.5% | 39.2% | −1.8 pp | 2.67 |
| Wisła Płock at most 1 goal | 62.5% | 60.8% | +1.8 pp | 1.60 |
| Cracovia 2+ goals | 39.1% | 39.2% | −0.2 pp | 2.56 |
| Cracovia at most 1 goal | 60.9% | 60.8% | +0.2 pp | 1.64 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | 73.1% | +4.5 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.4% | 26.9% | −4.5 pp | 4.46 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 48.7% | +0.8 pp | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 51.3% | −0.8 pp | 1.98 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wisła Płock sample
- 20 matches
- Cracovia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.