Monday, 07/09/2026 at 20:30
Full timePogoń Szczecin 1:1 Wisła Płock
Pogoń Szczecin were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Pogoń Szczecin's attack: 1.99 xG against 1.37 projected (+0.62). Wisła Płock produced 1.67 xG against 1.37 projected (+0.30).
Goals
- 52' Jan Biegański Pogoń Szczecin · 0.16 xG chance 1–0
- 60' Marcus Haglind Sangre Wisła Płock · 0.59 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- Pogoń Szczecin
- 35%
- Draw
- 30% What happened
- Wisła Płock
- 35%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Pogoń Szczecin produced 0.62 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 13
- On target
- 4
- 8
- Inside the box
- 14
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.14
- Open play xG
- 1.25
- 0.46
- Set-piece xG
- 0.64
- 1.38
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.91 for Pogoń Szczecin and 1.90 for Wisła Płock.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
35 shots · 3.73 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Pogoń Szczecin
- Wisła Płock
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.25 xG created 1.37 xGA
- D 1.00 created, 0.87 conceded against GKS Katowice
- L 1.08 created, 3.02 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- W 0.93 created, 1.15 conceded against Cracovia
- W 2.35 created, 0.92 conceded against Motor Lublin
- D 1.32 created, 0.86 conceded against Wisła Kraków
- D 0.82 created, 1.37 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
1.85 xG created 1.68 xGA
- D 3.24 created, 1.23 conceded against Lech Poznań
- W 0.86 created, 1.46 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
- D 1.54 created, 1.79 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- L 1.49 created, 1.78 conceded against Wisła Kraków
- L 1.73 created, 2.90 conceded against GKS Katowice
- L 2.25 created, 0.92 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisła Płock to win | 3.60 | +25.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.50 | +5.6% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | +4.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogoń Szczecin | 35.0% | 49.0% | −14.0 pp | 2.86 |
| Draw | 30.2% | 25.9% | +4.3 pp | 3.31 |
| Wisła Płock | 34.9% | 25.2% | +9.7 pp | 2.87 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 61.5% | 54.7% | +6.9 pp | 1.62 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.5% | 45.3% | −6.9 pp | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | 76.6% | +3.4 pp | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.0% | 23.4% | −3.4 pp | 5.01 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 53.9% | −0.9 pp | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 46.1% | +0.9 pp | 2.13 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Pogoń Szczecin sample
- 20 matches
- Wisła Płock sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.