Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 20:15
Full timeZagłębie Lubin 0:0 Pogoń Szczecin
Pogoń Szczecin were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Pogoń Szczecin's attack: 0.82 xG against 1.25 projected (−0.43).
The model against the result
- Zagłębie Lubin
- 33%
- Draw
- 32% What happened
- Pogoń Szczecin
- 35%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Pogoń Szczecin produced 0.43 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 8
- On target
- 6
- 1
- Inside the box
- 9
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.67
- 0.08
- Set-piece xG
- 0.56
- 0.47
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.27 for Zagłębie Lubin and 0.54 for Pogoń Szczecin.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 1.78 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Zagłębie Lubin
- Pogoń Szczecin
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.21 xG created 1.42 xGA
- L 0.56 created, 1.97 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- L 2.40 created, 2.05 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- W 1.09 created, 0.75 conceded against Piast Gliwice
- L 1.03 created, 1.70 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- W 0.89 created, 1.26 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
- D 1.27 created, 0.78 conceded against Radomiak Radom
1.44 xG created 1.23 xGA
- W 1.97 created, 0.56 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- D 1.00 created, 0.87 conceded against GKS Katowice
- L 1.08 created, 3.02 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- W 0.93 created, 1.15 conceded against Cracovia
- W 2.35 created, 0.92 conceded against Motor Lublin
- D 1.32 created, 0.86 conceded against Wisła Kraków
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged2 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.20 | +2.1% | Won |
| Zagłębie Lubin at most 1 goal | 1.57 | +1.3% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zagłębie Lubin | 33.5% | 36.0% | −2.5 pp | 2.99 |
| Draw | 31.9% | 28.7% | +3.2 pp | 3.14 |
| Pogoń Szczecin | 34.6% | 35.3% | −0.7 pp | 2.89 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zagłębie Lubin to score | 73.8% | 73.1% | +0.6 pp | 1.36 |
| Zagłębie Lubin not to score | 26.2% | 26.9% | −0.6 pp | 3.81 |
| Pogoń Szczecin to score | 74.4% | 73.1% | +1.3 pp | 1.34 |
| Pogoń Szczecin not to score | 25.6% | 26.9% | −1.3 pp | 3.91 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | 55.7% | +1.0 pp | 1.76 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.2% | 44.3% | −1.0 pp | 2.31 |
| Zagłębie Lubin 2+ goals | 35.5% | 41.1% | −5.6 pp | 2.81 |
| Zagłębie Lubin at most 1 goal | 64.5% | 58.9% | +5.6 pp | 1.55 |
| Pogoń Szczecin 2+ goals | 36.4% | 39.2% | −2.8 pp | 2.75 |
| Pogoń Szczecin at most 1 goal | 63.6% | 60.8% | +2.8 pp | 1.57 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | 73.1% | +2.3 pp | 1.33 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.6% | 26.9% | −2.3 pp | 4.07 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 48.7% | −2.4 pp | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.7% | 51.3% | +2.4 pp | 1.86 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Zagłębie Lubin sample
- 20 matches
- Pogoń Szczecin sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.