xgEdge

Expected goals

Molde FK expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Eliteserien · after 21 matches · updated 1 Oct

Molde FK's attacking and defensive expected goals in Eliteserien 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Molde FK xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.83 xG per match
#3/16
Attack (xG per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt 2.31
#2 Viking FK 2.09
#3 Molde FK 1.83
#4 Tromsø IL 1.60
#5 SK Brann 1.58
#6 Rosenborg BK 1.56
#7 Lillestrøm SK 1.56
#8 Vålerenga IF 1.55
#9 Sarpsborg 08 1.51
#10 Aalesunds FK 1.40
#11 IK Start 1.36
#12 Fredrikstad FK 1.20
#13 Sandefjord Fotball 1.18
#14 HamKam 1.14
#15 KFUM Oslo 1.09
#16 Kristiansund BK 0.97
League avg
1.50
Total
38.39 21 matches
Defence
1.17 xGA per match
#3/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt 0.90
#2 Viking FK 1.16
#3 Molde FK 1.17
#4 Tromsø IL 1.23
#5 Sarpsborg 08 1.40
#6 Rosenborg BK 1.42
#7 Lillestrøm SK 1.46
#8 SK Brann 1.53
#9 Sandefjord Fotball 1.59
#10 IK Start 1.61
#11 Vålerenga IF 1.63
#12 HamKam 1.66
#13 Fredrikstad FK 1.67
#14 Kristiansund BK 1.72
#15 KFUM Oslo 1.78
#16 Aalesunds FK 1.98
League avg
1.50
Total
24.61 21 matches
xG difference
+0.66 xGD per match
#3/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt +1.41
#2 Viking FK +0.93
#3 Molde FK +0.66
#4 Tromsø IL +0.37
#5 Rosenborg BK +0.14
#6 Sarpsborg 08 +0.11
#7 Lillestrøm SK +0.10
#8 SK Brann +0.05
#9 Vålerenga IF -0.08
#10 IK Start -0.25
#11 Sandefjord Fotball -0.41
#12 Fredrikstad FK -0.47
#13 HamKam -0.52
#14 Aalesunds FK -0.58
#15 KFUM Oslo -0.69
#16 Kristiansund BK -0.75
League avg
0.00
Total
+13.78 21 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.80 xPts per match
#3/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt 2.24
#2 Viking FK 1.97
#3 Molde FK 1.80
#4 Tromsø IL 1.68
#5 Rosenborg BK 1.52
#6 Lillestrøm SK 1.46
#7 Sarpsborg 08 1.45
#8 SK Brann 1.40
#9 Vålerenga IF 1.33
#10 IK Start 1.19
#11 Fredrikstad FK 1.10
#12 Sandefjord Fotball 1.09
#13 HamKam 1.05
#14 Aalesunds FK 1.04
#15 Kristiansund BK 0.95
#16 KFUM Oslo 0.94
League avg
1.39
Total
37.81 vs 36 actual pts

What the xG says

Molde FK's underlying numbers are among the best in Eliteserien. They rank #3 for xG difference at +0.66 per match, driven by both high shot volume and high chance quality. Their 44 goals are 5.61 above 38.39 xG, while 36 points are 1.81 below 37.81 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 2.51 xG from penalties
44 38.39 +5.61 scored 5.61 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
32 24.61 +7.39 conceded 7.39 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
36 37.81 -1.81 1.81 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Molde FK are 5.61 goals above their xG after 21 matches. The gap was widest at +6.23, against HamKam on Sun 13/09.

Goals
44
xG
38.39
Gap
+5.61
Sat 14/03 Sat 21/03 Mon 06/04 Sun 12/04 Sun 19/04 Sun 26/04 Mon 04/05 Sun 10/05 Sat 16/05 Mon 25/05 Sat 30/05 Sat 11/07 Sat 18/07 Sun 26/07 Sun 02/08 Sun 09/08 Sun 16/08 Sun 30/08 Sun 06/09 Sun 13/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +0.69 +0.48 -0.55 +1.72 +1.24 +2.65 +2.66 +1.50 +1.36 +0.82 +1.83 +1.92 +1.56 +2.02 +3.40 +1.19 +1.69 +3.96 +4.15 +6.23 +5.61 +0.69 -0.21 -1.03 +2.27 -0.48 +1.41 +0.01 -1.16 -0.14 -0.54 +1.01 +0.09 -0.36 +0.46 +1.38 -2.21 +0.50 +2.27 +0.19 +2.08 -0.62 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Molde FK: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 14/03 Rosenborg BK 2 1.31 +0.69 +0.69
Sat 21/03 Viking FK 1 1.21 -0.21 +0.48
Mon 06/04 Lillestrøm SK 0 1.03 -1.03 -0.55
Sun 12/04 HamKam 4 1.73 +2.27 +1.72
Sun 19/04 IK Start 1 1.48 -0.48 +1.24
Sun 26/04 Vålerenga IF 5 3.59 +1.41 +2.65
Mon 04/05 Bodø/Glimt 1 0.99 +0.01 +2.66
Sun 10/05 Tromsø IL 0 1.16 -1.16 +1.50
Sat 16/05 Kristiansund BK 1 1.14 -0.14 +1.36
Mon 25/05 Sarpsborg 08 1 1.54 -0.54 +0.82
Sat 30/05 Sandefjord Fotball 2 0.99 +1.01 +1.83
Sat 11/07 Aalesunds FK 2 1.91 +0.09 +1.92
Sat 18/07 SK Brann 1 1.36 -0.36 +1.56
Sun 26/07 KFUM Oslo 4 3.54 +0.46 +2.02
Sun 02/08 Sarpsborg 08 3 1.62 +1.38 +3.40
Sun 09/08 Kristiansund BK 1 3.21 -2.21 +1.19
Sun 16/08 Tromsø IL 3 2.50 +0.50 +1.69
Sun 30/08 Vålerenga IF 4 1.73 +2.27 +3.96
Sun 06/09 KFUM Oslo 2 1.81 +0.19 +4.15
Sun 13/09 HamKam 5 2.92 +2.08 +6.23
Sat 19/09 Aalesunds FK 1 1.62 -0.62 +5.61

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

Molde FK xG trend

Current form +0.97 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 17 of 21 matches. The worst was against Bodø/Glimt on Mon 04/05 (-2.12).

npxG · last 6
1.93
npxGA · last 6
0.96
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.49 Sat 14/03 -0.96 Sat 21/03 -0.47 Mon 06/04 +0.83 Sun 12/04 +0.25 Sun 19/04 +2.21 Sun 26/04 -2.12 Mon 04/05 -1.05 Sun 10/05 +0.28 Sat 16/05 +1.19 Mon 25/05 +0.10 Sat 30/05 +1.52 Sat 11/07 +0.85 Sat 18/07 +2.98 Sun 26/07 +0.40 Sun 02/08 +1.74 Sun 09/08 +1.13 Sun 16/08 +0.03 Sun 30/08 +1.64 Sun 06/09 +1.13 Sun 13/09 +0.17 Sat 19/09 +0.59 season avg
Molde FK: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 14/03 Rosenborg BK 1.30 0.81 +0.49 +0.49
Sat 21/03 Viking FK 1.26 2.22 -0.96 -0.24
Mon 06/04 Lillestrøm SK 1.03 1.50 -0.47 -0.31
Sun 12/04 HamKam 1.84 1.01 +0.83 -0.03
Sun 19/04 IK Start 1.03 0.78 +0.25 +0.03
Sun 26/04 Vålerenga IF 3.59 1.38 +2.21 +0.39
Mon 04/05 Bodø/Glimt 0.99 3.11 -2.12 +0.03
Sun 10/05 Tromsø IL 1.18 2.23 -1.05 -0.10
Sat 16/05 Kristiansund BK 1.22 0.94 +0.28 -0.06
Mon 25/05 Sarpsborg 08 1.52 0.33 +1.19 +0.07
Sat 30/05 Sandefjord Fotball 0.91 0.81 +0.10 +0.07
Sat 11/07 Aalesunds FK 1.99 0.47 +1.52 +0.19
Sat 18/07 SK Brann 1.38 0.53 +0.85 +0.24
Sun 26/07 KFUM Oslo 3.43 0.45 +2.98 +0.44
Sun 02/08 Sarpsborg 08 1.61 1.21 +0.40 +0.43
Sun 09/08 Kristiansund BK 2.40 0.66 +1.74 +0.51
Sun 16/08 Tromsø IL 1.74 0.61 +1.13 +0.55
Sun 30/08 Vålerenga IF 1.73 1.70 +0.03 +0.52
Sun 06/09 KFUM Oslo 1.82 0.18 +1.64 +0.58
Sun 13/09 HamKam 2.69 1.56 +1.13 +0.61
Sat 19/09 Aalesunds FK 1.22 1.05 +0.17 +0.59

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.71 npxG and 1.12 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 16 hardest of 16 in Eliteserien
−0.07 xG vs league average
Over 21 league matches
Last 5
tied number 15 hardest of 16 in Eliteserien
−0.19 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.07 xG vs league average · over 21 matches · number 16 hardest of 16

  1. Aalesunds FK Home −0.12
  2. HamKam Away −0.51
  3. KFUM Oslo Home −0.52
  4. Vålerenga IF Away +0.11
  5. Tromsø IL Home +0.08
  6. Kristiansund BK Away −0.36
  7. Sarpsborg 08 Home +0.08
  8. KFUM Oslo Away −0.52
  9. SK Brann Home 0.00
  10. Aalesunds FK Away −0.12
  11. Sandefjord Fotball Home −0.13
  12. Sarpsborg 08 Away +0.08
  13. Kristiansund BK Home −0.36
  14. Tromsø IL Away +0.08
  15. Bodø/Glimt Away +0.79
  16. Vålerenga IF Home +0.11
  17. IK Start Away +0.04
  18. HamKam Home −0.51
  19. Lillestrøm SK Home −0.10
  20. Viking FK Away +0.35
  21. Rosenborg BK Home +0.14

Last 5

−0.19 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 15 hardest of 16

  1. Aalesunds FK Home −0.12
  2. HamKam Away −0.51
  3. KFUM Oslo Home −0.52
  4. Vålerenga IF Away +0.11
  5. Tromsø IL Home +0.08

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Molde FK shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. Molde FK take 15.4 shots a match (league 13.8) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #5 in Eliteserien for volume and #4 for quality. 74% of their shots come from inside the box (league 69%), and set pieces produce 21% of their npxG (league 24%).

Attack

Shot volume
15.4 shots per match
#5/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt 17.7
=2 Viking FK 16.2
=2 Vålerenga IF 16.2
#4 Aalesunds FK 15.6
#5 Molde FK 15.4
#6 Sandefjord Fotball 14.5
#7 SK Brann 14.1
#8 IK Start 14.0
#9 Rosenborg BK 13.6
#10 Tromsø IL 13.5
#11 Sarpsborg 08 13.3
#12 Lillestrøm SK 12.5
#13 Kristiansund BK 12.5
#14 Fredrikstad FK 11.3
#15 KFUM Oslo 10.5
#16 HamKam 10.4
League avg
13.8
Total
324 shots from 21 matches
Chance quality
0.11 npxG per shot
#4/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Bodø/Glimt 0.11
#2 Tromsø IL 0.11
#3 Viking FK 0.11
#4 Molde FK 0.11
#5 Lillestrøm SK 0.10
#6 Rosenborg BK 0.10
#7 Sarpsborg 08 0.10
#8 Fredrikstad FK 0.10
#9 HamKam 0.10
#10 SK Brann 0.10
#11 KFUM Oslo 0.09
#12 IK Start 0.09
#13 Vålerenga IF 0.09
#14 Aalesunds FK 0.09
#15 Kristiansund BK 0.08
#16 Sandefjord Fotball 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
35.88 npxG from 324 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
12.0 shots per match
#3/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt 8.3
#2 Tromsø IL 11.2
#3 Molde FK 12.0
#4 Viking FK 13.0
#5 Sarpsborg 08 13.1
#6 Rosenborg BK 13.3
#7 Lillestrøm SK 13.9
#8 SK Brann 14.4
#9 IK Start 14.4
#10 KFUM Oslo 14.7
#11 Vålerenga IF 14.8
#12 Fredrikstad FK 15.0
=13 Kristiansund BK 15.0
=13 Sandefjord Fotball 15.0
#15 HamKam 16.4
#16 Aalesunds FK 16.9
League avg
13.8
Total
252 shots allowed from 21 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#5/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Viking FK 0.08
#2 Sandefjord Fotball 0.09
#3 Lillestrøm SK 0.09
#4 Sarpsborg 08 0.09
#5 Molde FK 0.09
#6 IK Start 0.10
#7 SK Brann 0.10
#8 Vålerenga IF 0.10
#9 Fredrikstad FK 0.10
#10 HamKam 0.10
#11 Kristiansund BK 0.10
#12 Rosenborg BK 0.10
#13 Tromsø IL 0.10
#14 KFUM Oslo 0.10
#15 Bodø/Glimt 0.11
#16 Aalesunds FK 0.11
League avg
0.10
Total
23.54 npxGA from 252 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

74% inside the box

League avg 69%

From 239 of 325 shots over 21 matches

Shots allowed, location

66% allowed inside the box

League avg 69%

From 168 of 253 shots allowed over 21 matches

Where the npxG comes from

79% open play · 21% set pieces

League avg 24% set pieces

From 7.6 of 35.7 npxG over 21 matches

Where the npxG allowed comes from

73% open play · 27% set pieces

League avg 24% set pieces

From 6.3 of 23.1 npxG allowed over 21 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Molde FK home and away xG

Molde FK per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 11 10
xG / match 1.70 1.97
xGA / match 0.95 1.42
xGD / match +0.75 +0.55
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.89 1.70

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Molde FK match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
2.12
xGA / match
1.05
xGD / match
+1.06
Points
12 of 15
  1. Sat 19/09 Aalesunds FK H xG 1.62 xGA 1.05 xGD +0.57
  2. Sun 13/09 HamKam A xG 2.92 xGA 1.56 xGD +1.36
  3. Sun 06/09 KFUM Oslo H xG 1.81 xGA 0.18 xGD +1.63
  4. Sun 30/08 Vålerenga IF A Weakest underlying xG 1.73 xGA 1.82 xGD -0.09
  5. Sun 16/08 Tromsø IL H Best underlying xG 2.50 P xGA 0.65 xGD +1.85

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Molde FK in Eliteserien

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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