Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 17:00
14d 16h to kick-offMolde FK – IK Start
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Molde FK
- 50%
- Draw
- 28%
- IK Start
- 21%
| Molde FK | Draw | IK Start | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.98 | 3.55 | 4.69 |
- Total goals
- 2.77
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Molde FK
50% Molde FK to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 10th
- Molde FK attack v IK Start defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 7th
- Molde FK defence v IK Start attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.31 vs +0.21
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.69 – 1.08
- Molde FK v IK Start
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Molde FK | IK Start |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.83 · 3rd | 1.36 · 11th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.17 · 3rd | 1.61 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.66 · 3rd | -0.25 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.80 · 3rd | 1.19 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.31 | +0.21 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Molde FK clean sheet
- 31%
- Molde FK 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.2%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 2:0
- 9.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Molde FK sample
- 20 matches
- IK Start sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Molde FK
- 11 matches
- Away xG sample · IK Start
- 11 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.