Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeMolde FK 1:2 Aalesunds FK
Molde FK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 60%. Aalesunds FK won 2–1. The biggest difference was Molde FK's attack: 1.62 xG against 2.10 projected (−0.48).
Goals
- 7' Mathias Christensen Aalesunds FK · 0.12 xG chance 0–1
- 44' Isak Gabriel Skotheim Aalesunds FK · 0.21 xG chance 0–2
- 82' Kristian Lonebu Molde FK · 0.07 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- Molde FK
- 60%
- Draw
- 24%
- Aalesunds FK
- 16% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Molde FK produced 0.48 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 12
- On target
- 7
- 5
- Inside the box
- 13
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 1.09
- 0.78
- Set-piece xG
- 0.15
- 0.26
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.22 for Molde FK and 1.05 for Aalesunds FK.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 2.28 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Molde FK
- Aalesunds FK
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.30 xG created 0.99 xGA
1.71 xG created 2.03 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged2 won5 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.33 | +54.6% | Lost |
| Molde FK at most 1 goal | 4.33 | +54.1% | Won |
| Molde FK not to score | 15.00 | +53.5% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11.00 | +47.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.75 | +36.1% | Lost |
| Aalesunds FK to win | 7.00 | +14.6% | Won |
| Aalesunds FK at most 1 goal | 1.50 | +4.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molde FK | 60.0% | 70.3% | −10.4 pp | 1.67 |
| Draw | 23.7% | 16.3% | +7.4 pp | 4.22 |
| Aalesunds FK | 16.4% | 13.4% | +3.0 pp | 6.11 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molde FK to score | 89.8% | 93.6% | −3.8 pp | 1.11 |
| Molde FK not to score | 10.2% | 6.4% | +3.8 pp | 9.77 |
| Aalesunds FK to score | 70.0% | 70.9% | −0.9 pp | 1.43 |
| Aalesunds FK not to score | 30.0% | 29.1% | +0.9 pp | 3.33 |
| Both teams to score | 64.1% | 64.5% | −0.4 pp | 1.56 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.9% | 35.5% | +0.4 pp | 2.79 |
| Molde FK 2+ goals | 64.4% | 78.3% | −13.9 pp | 1.55 |
| Molde FK at most 1 goal | 35.6% | 21.7% | +13.9 pp | 2.81 |
| Aalesunds FK 2+ goals | 30.6% | 37.5% | −6.9 pp | 3.27 |
| Aalesunds FK at most 1 goal | 69.4% | 62.5% | +6.9 pp | 1.44 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.6% | 91.3% | −4.7 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.4% | 8.7% | +4.7 pp | 7.46 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | 78.3% | −14.0 pp | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.7% | 21.7% | +14.0 pp | 2.80 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Molde FK sample
- 20 matches
- Aalesunds FK sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.