HamKam 1:5 Molde FK: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · Eliteserien

HamKam Home 1.56 xG · 15 shots

Molde FK Away 2.92 xG · 16 shots

15 The scoreline reflected the chances

Molde FK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 5–1. The biggest difference was Molde FK's attack: 2.92 xG against 1.54 projected (+1.38). HamKam produced 1.56 xG against 0.90 projected (+0.66).

Goals

5' Jalal Abdullai Molde FK · 0.14 xG chance 0–1
46' Mohamed Ofkir HamKam · 0.30 xG chance 1–1
56' Trent Kone Doherty Molde FK · 0.11 xG chance 1–2
58' Trent Kone Doherty Molde FK · 0.18 xG chance 1–3
84' Trent Kone Doherty Molde FK · 0.57 xG chance 1–4
90' Kristian Lonebu Molde FK · 0.30 xG chance 1–5

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

HamKam: 19%
Draw: 30%
Molde FK: 51% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

HamKam 0.90 1.56 +0.66

Molde FK 1.54 2.92 +1.38

Molde FK produced 1.38 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

HamKam Molde FK

Shots: 15; 16
On target: 3; 6
Inside the box: 8; 15
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.17
Open play xG: 1.08; 2.46
Set-piece xG: 0.49; 0.18
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.56 for HamKam and 2.69 for Molde FK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 4.21 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

HamKam
Molde FK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

HamKam

0.91 xG created 1.50 xGA

L 1.03 created, 1.69 conceded against Sarpsborg 08
W 1.40 created, 0.69 conceded against Vålerenga IF
D 1.59 created, 0.63 conceded against Aalesunds FK
L 0.24 created, 2.38 conceded against SK Brann
D 0.71 created, 1.13 conceded against Kristiansund BK
L 0.48 created, 2.49 conceded against Rosenborg BK

Molde FK

2.40 xG created 0.85 xGA

W 3.54 created, 0.69 conceded against KFUM Oslo
D 1.62 created, 1.09 conceded against Sarpsborg 08
L 3.21 created, 0.66 conceded against Kristiansund BK
W 2.50 created, 0.65 conceded against Tromsø IL
W 1.73 created, 1.82 conceded against Vålerenga IF
W 1.81 created, 0.18 conceded against KFUM Oslo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

HamKam: 1 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on HamKam against Molde FK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 1.5 goals	6.00	+53.8%	Lost
Molde FK not to score	8.00	+49.4%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.70	+48.3%	Lost
Molde FK at most 1 goal	2.50	+32.0%	Lost
HamKam not to score	3.25	+22.8%	Lost
Draw	4.10	+21.9%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.50	+19.1%	Lost
HamKam at most 1 goal	1.44	+12.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
HamKam	18.9%	20.7%	−1.9 pp	5.30
Draw	29.7%	22.7%	+7.0 pp	3.36
Molde FK	51.4%	56.5%	−5.1 pp	1.95

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
HamKam to score	62.2%	70.9%	−8.7 pp	1.61
HamKam not to score	37.8%	29.1%	+8.7 pp	2.65
Molde FK to score	81.3%	88.1%	−6.8 pp	1.23
Molde FK not to score	18.7%	11.9%	+6.8 pp	5.35
Both teams to score	52.4%	62.5%	−10.1 pp	1.91
Both teams not to score	47.6%	37.5%	+10.1 pp	2.10
HamKam 2+ goals	22.3%	35.5%	−13.2 pp	4.49
HamKam at most 1 goal	77.7%	64.5%	+13.2 pp	1.29
Molde FK 2+ goals	47.2%	62.5%	−15.3 pp	2.12
Molde FK at most 1 goal	52.8%	37.5%	+15.3 pp	1.89
Over 1.5 goals	74.4%	84.2%	−9.8 pp	1.34
Under 1.5 goals	25.6%	15.8%	+9.8 pp	3.90
Over 2.5 goals	45.1%	65.2%	−20.1 pp	2.22
Under 2.5 goals	54.9%	34.8%	+20.1 pp	1.82

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
HamKam sample: 20 matches
Molde FK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.