Friday, 18/09/2026 at 19:00
Full timeSarpsborg 08 1:3 KFUM Oslo
Sarpsborg 08 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. KFUM Oslo won 3–1. The biggest difference was Sarpsborg 08's attack: 2.60 xG against 1.56 projected (+1.04).
Goals
- 24' Bjorn Martin Kristensen KFUM Oslo · 0.05 xG chance 0–1
- 45' Daniel Karlsbakk (pen.) Sarpsborg 08 · 0.82 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
- 45' Hakon Helland Hoseth KFUM Oslo · 0.17 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
- 73' Julian Bakkeli Gonstad KFUM Oslo · 0.22 xG chance 1–3
The model against the result
- Sarpsborg 08
- 54%
- Draw
- 29%
- KFUM Oslo
- 17% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Sarpsborg 08 produced 1.04 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 10
- On target
- 7
- 4
- Inside the box
- 16
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.67
- 0.90
- Set-piece xG
- 1.19
- 0.07
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.82 for Sarpsborg 08 and 0.95 for KFUM Oslo.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 3.65 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Sarpsborg 08
- KFUM Oslo
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.48 xG created 1.70 xGA
- D 1.09 created, 1.62 conceded against Molde FK
- L 2.57 created, 2.83 conceded against Viking FK
- L 2.43 created, 1.69 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
- D 0.51 created, 1.38 conceded against Tromsø IL
- D 2.04 created, 1.29 conceded against Vålerenga IF
- D 0.23 created, 1.40 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
1.29 xG created 2.03 xGA
- W 1.23 created, 1.22 conceded against Kristiansund BK
- W 2.25 created, 1.33 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
- D 0.92 created, 2.80 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
- L 1.65 created, 3.43 conceded against IK Start
- L 0.18 created, 1.81 conceded against Molde FK
- W 1.48 created, 1.57 conceded against Aalesunds FK
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | +35.6% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.00 | +33.9% | Lost |
| Sarpsborg 08 at most 1 goal | 2.50 | +30.2% | Won |
| Sarpsborg 08 not to score | 7.00 | +27.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.10 | +20.6% | Lost |
| KFUM Oslo not to score | 2.75 | +12.1% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 2.25 | +12.1% | Lost |
| KFUM Oslo at most 1 goal | 1.36 | +10.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 | 54.0% | 59.9% | −5.9 pp | 1.85 |
| Draw | 29.4% | 23.0% | +6.5 pp | 3.40 |
| KFUM Oslo | 16.6% | 17.1% | −0.6 pp | 6.04 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 to score | 81.7% | 86.4% | −4.7 pp | 1.22 |
| Sarpsborg 08 not to score | 18.3% | 13.6% | +4.7 pp | 5.48 |
| KFUM Oslo to score | 59.3% | 66.3% | −7.0 pp | 1.69 |
| KFUM Oslo not to score | 40.7% | 33.7% | +7.0 pp | 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 58.9% | −8.7 pp | 1.99 |
| Both teams not to score | 49.8% | 41.1% | +8.7 pp | 2.01 |
| Sarpsborg 08 2+ goals | 47.9% | 62.5% | −14.6 pp | 2.09 |
| Sarpsborg 08 at most 1 goal | 52.1% | 37.5% | +14.6 pp | 1.92 |
| KFUM Oslo 2+ goals | 19.2% | 31.3% | −12.1 pp | 5.21 |
| KFUM Oslo at most 1 goal | 80.8% | 68.7% | +12.1 pp | 1.24 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | 81.1% | −7.9 pp | 1.37 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.8% | 18.9% | +7.9 pp | 3.73 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 61.0% | −17.5 pp | 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.5% | 39.0% | +17.5 pp | 1.77 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sarpsborg 08 sample
- 20 matches
- KFUM Oslo sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.