Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 17:00
35d 18h to kick-offTromsø IL – Bodø/Glimt
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Tromsø IL
- 25%
- Draw
- 32%
- Bodø/Glimt
- 43%
| Tromsø IL | Draw | Bodø/Glimt | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.05 | 3.09 | 2.33 |
- Total goals
- 2.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score
- 51%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Bodø/Glimt
43% Bodø/Glimt to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 2nd
- Bodø/Glimt attack v Tromsø IL defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 10th
- Bodø/Glimt defence v Tromsø IL attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.32 vs +0.01
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.98 – 1.32
- Tromsø IL v Bodø/Glimt
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Tromsø IL | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.60 · 4th | (better) 2.31 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 1.23 · 4th | (better) 0.90 · 1st |
| xGD / match | +0.37 · 4th | (better) +1.41 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.68 · 4th | (better) 2.24 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.01 | (better) +1.32 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- Bodø/Glimt clean sheet
- 35%
- Bodø/Glimt 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score: no
- 49%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.6%
- 0:1
- 11.0%
- 0:0
- 10.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Tromsø IL sample
- 20 matches
- Bodø/Glimt sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Tromsø IL
- 11 matches
- Away xG sample · Bodø/Glimt
- 11 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.