Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 19:15
14d 19h to kick-offTromsø IL – KFUM Oslo
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Tromsø IL
- 56%
- Draw
- 29%
- KFUM Oslo
- 15%
| Tromsø IL | Draw | KFUM Oslo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.80 | 3.44 | 6.49 |
- Total goals
- 2.35
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score
- 49%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Tromsø IL
56% Tromsø IL to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 14th
- Tromsø IL attack v KFUM Oslo defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 16th
- Tromsø IL defence v KFUM Oslo attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.01 vs -1.02
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.57 – 0.78
- Tromsø IL v KFUM Oslo
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Tromsø IL | KFUM Oslo |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.60 · 4th | 1.09 · 15th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.23 · 4th | 1.78 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.37 · 4th | -0.69 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.68 · 4th | 0.94 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.01 | -1.02 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 40% of the model's distribution.
- Tromsø IL clean sheet
- 43%
- Tromsø IL 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score: no
- 51%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.1%
- 1:0
- 12.7%
- 2:0
- 12.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Tromsø IL sample
- 20 matches
- KFUM Oslo sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Tromsø IL
- 11 matches
- Away xG sample · KFUM Oslo
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.