Monday, 12/10/2026 at 19:00
8d 17h to kick-offKFUM Oslo – Vålerenga IF
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- KFUM Oslo
- 27%
- Draw
- 30%
- Vålerenga IF
- 43%
| KFUM Oslo | Draw | Vålerenga IF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.72 | 3.29 | 2.34 |
- Total goals
- 2.60
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 4 outcomes.
-
KFUM Oslo
- Model
- 26.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 33.5%
- Probability gap
- −6.6 pp
- Edge
- −26.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.72
- Market odds
- 2.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.90
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.6%
-
Draw
- Model
- 30.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.6%
- Probability gap
- +4.8 pp
- Edge
- +9.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.29
- Market odds
- 3.60 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.45
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.6%
-
Vålerenga IF
- Model
- 42.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 40.9%
- Probability gap
- +1.8 pp
- Edge
- −4.0%
- Fair odds
- 2.34
- Market odds
- 2.25 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.46
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.6%
Outcomes with value
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Both teams not to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Vålerenga IF
43% Vålerenga IF to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 14th
- Vålerenga IF attack v KFUM Oslo defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 16th
- Vålerenga IF defence v KFUM Oslo attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.25 vs -1.02
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.14 – 1.46
- KFUM Oslo v Vålerenga IF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | KFUM Oslo | Vålerenga IF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.09 · 15th | (better) 1.55 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 1.78 · 15th | (better) 1.63 · 11th |
| xGD / match | -0.69 · 15th | (better) -0.08 · 9th |
| xPts / match | 0.94 · 16th | (better) 1.33 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.02 | (better) +0.25 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Vålerenga IF clean sheet
- 29%
- Vålerenga IF 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.5%
- 1:2
- 10.5%
- 0:1
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KFUM Oslo sample
- 20 matches
- Vålerenga IF sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · KFUM Oslo
- 11 matches
- Away xG sample · Vålerenga IF
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.