Rosenborg BK 5:3 Tromsø IL: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Eliteserien

Rosenborg BK Home 1.81 xG · 20 shots

Tromsø IL Away 2.20 xG · 15 shots

53 The result went against the chances

Rosenborg BK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 5–3. The biggest difference was Tromsø IL's attack: 2.20 xG against 1.10 projected (+1.10). Rosenborg BK produced 1.81 xG against 1.27 projected (+0.54).

Goals

3' Ole Selnaes Rosenborg BK · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
5' Amin Chiakha Rosenborg BK · 0.23 xG chance 2–0
34' Noah Sahsah Rosenborg BK · 0.03 xG chance 3–0
43' Aslak Witry Rosenborg BK · 0.20 xG chance 4–0
47' Noah Sahsah Rosenborg BK · 0.14 xG chance 5–0
71' Troy Nyhammer Tromsø IL · 0.20 xG chance 5–1
75' Heine Asen Larsen (pen.) Tromsø IL · 0.82 xG chance 5–2
77' Ole Selnaes (o.g.) Tromsø IL · 0.17 xG chance 5–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Rosenborg BK: 38% What happened
Draw: 33%
Tromsø IL: 29%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Rosenborg BK 1.27 1.81 +0.54

Tromsø IL 1.10 2.20 +1.10

Tromsø IL produced 1.10 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Rosenborg BK Tromsø IL

Shots: 20; 15
On target: 10; 8
Inside the box: 14; 12
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.15
Open play xG: 1.16; 1.05
Set-piece xG: 0.64; 0.35
Penalties: 0; 1

Rosenborg BK's shots add up to 1.80 xG and Tromsø IL's to 2.22; the published figures are 1.81 and 2.20.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

35 shots · 4.02 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Rosenborg BK
Tromsø IL
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Rosenborg BK

1.97 xG created 1.50 xGA

W 2.54 created, 0.54 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
L 1.93 created, 0.78 conceded against SK Brann
W 2.45 created, 2.39 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
W 1.37 created, 1.86 conceded against Viking FK
L 1.04 created, 2.93 conceded against Bodø/Glimt
W 2.49 created, 0.48 conceded against HamKam

Tromsø IL

1.35 xG created 1.32 xGA

W 1.95 created, 0.77 conceded against Vålerenga IF
W 1.90 created, 0.80 conceded against HamKam
W 1.86 created, 2.69 conceded against Aalesunds FK
L 0.65 created, 2.50 conceded against Molde FK
D 1.38 created, 0.51 conceded against Sarpsborg 08
L 0.35 created, 0.65 conceded against Kristiansund BK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Rosenborg BK: 1 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Rosenborg BK against Tromsø IL before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Rosenborg BK not to score	6.50	+63.5%	Lost
Tromsø IL to win	5.00	+46.4%	Lost
Rosenborg BK at most 1 goal	2.25	+41.9%	Lost
Draw	3.90	+27.2%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.20	+25.5%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.50	+21.8%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.20	+0.9%	Lost
Tromsø IL to score	1.44	+0.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Rosenborg BK	38.1%	57.0%	−18.9 pp	2.62
Draw	32.6%	24.1%	+8.5 pp	3.07
Tromsø IL	29.3%	18.8%	+10.4 pp	3.42

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Rosenborg BK to score	74.8%	85.4%	−10.6 pp	1.34
Rosenborg BK not to score	25.2%	14.6%	+10.6 pp	3.97
Tromsø IL to score	69.7%	64.5%	+5.2 pp	1.43
Tromsø IL not to score	30.3%	35.5%	−5.2 pp	3.30
Both teams to score	54.1%	57.7%	−3.5 pp	1.85
Both teams not to score	45.9%	42.3%	+3.5 pp	2.18
Rosenborg BK 2+ goals	36.9%	58.9%	−21.9 pp	2.71
Rosenborg BK at most 1 goal	63.1%	41.1%	+21.9 pp	1.59
Tromsø IL 2+ goals	30.3%	29.1%	+1.2 pp	3.30
Tromsø IL at most 1 goal	69.7%	70.9%	−1.2 pp	1.43
Over 1.5 goals	72.9%	79.2%	−6.3 pp	1.37
Under 1.5 goals	27.1%	20.8%	+6.3 pp	3.69
Over 2.5 goals	42.9%	57.1%	−14.2 pp	2.33
Under 2.5 goals	57.1%	42.9%	+14.2 pp	1.75

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Rosenborg BK sample: 20 matches
Tromsø IL sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.