Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 17:00
28d 17h to kick-offVålerenga IF – Tromsø IL
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Vålerenga IF
- 41%
- Draw
- 31%
- Tromsø IL
- 28%
| Vålerenga IF | Draw | Tromsø IL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.44 | 3.24 | 3.54 |
- Total goals
- 2.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Vålerenga IF
41% Vålerenga IF to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 2nd
- Vålerenga IF attack v Tromsø IL defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 10th
- Vålerenga IF defence v Tromsø IL attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.25 vs +0.01
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.42 – 1.17
- Vålerenga IF v Tromsø IL
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Vålerenga IF | Tromsø IL |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.55 · 8th | (better) 1.60 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.63 · 11th | (better) 1.23 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.08 · 9th | (better) +0.37 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.33 · 9th | (better) 1.68 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.25 | +0.01 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Vålerenga IF clean sheet
- 28%
- Vålerenga IF 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.7%
- 2:1
- 10.4%
- 1:0
- 8.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Vålerenga IF sample
- 20 matches
- Tromsø IL sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Vålerenga IF
- 11 matches
- Away xG sample · Tromsø IL
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.