Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 17:00
14d 15h to kick-offVålerenga IF – SK Brann
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Vålerenga IF
- 45%
- Draw
- 29%
- SK Brann
- 26%
| Vålerenga IF | Draw | SK Brann | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.23 | 3.45 | 3.82 |
- Total goals
- 2.81
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Vålerenga IF
45% Vålerenga IF to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 8th
- Vålerenga IF attack v SK Brann defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 9th
- Vålerenga IF defence v SK Brann attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.25 vs -0.04
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.60 – 1.21
- Vålerenga IF v SK Brann
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Vålerenga IF | SK Brann |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.55 · 8th | (better) 1.58 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 1.63 · 11th | (better) 1.53 · 8th |
| xGD / match | -0.08 · 9th | (better) +0.05 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 1.33 · 9th | (better) 1.40 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.25 | -0.04 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Vålerenga IF clean sheet
- 27%
- Vålerenga IF 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.4%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 1:2
- 8.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Vålerenga IF sample
- 20 matches
- SK Brann sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Vålerenga IF
- 11 matches
- Away xG sample · SK Brann
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.