Excelsior 2:1 Sparta Rotterdam: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · Eredivisie

Excelsior Home 1.21 xG · 14 shots

Sparta Rotterdam Away 0.97 xG · 10 shots

21 The chances were evenly matched

Excelsior were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Excelsior's attack: 1.21 xG against 1.61 projected (−0.40). Sparta Rotterdam produced 0.97 xG against 1.29 projected (−0.32).

Goals

24' Aymen Sliti Excelsior · 0.06 xG chance 1–0
48' Milan Zonneveld Sparta Rotterdam · 0.33 xG chance 1–1
90' Nesto Groen Excelsior · 0.40 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Excelsior: 43% What happened
Draw: 29%
Sparta Rotterdam: 28%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Excelsior 1.61 1.21 -0.40

Sparta Rotterdam 1.29 0.97 -0.32

Excelsior produced 0.40 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Excelsior Sparta Rotterdam

Shots: 14; 10
On target: 4; 2
Inside the box: 12; 5
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.73; 0.81
Set-piece xG: 0.46; 0.16
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.18 for Excelsior.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 2.16 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Excelsior

1.77 xG created 1.19 xGA

W 3.31 created, 0.84 conceded against FC Utrecht
W 2.58 created, 1.14 conceded against FC Groningen
D 0.38 created, 0.46 conceded against FC Volendam
W 0.95 created, 1.76 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
W 2.87 created, 0.72 conceded against SC Cambuur
L 0.51 created, 2.24 conceded against PSV Eindhoven

Sparta Rotterdam

1.63 xG created 2.30 xGA

D 1.89 created, 2.08 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
L 0.86 created, 3.92 conceded against FC Twente
L 1.76 created, 0.95 conceded against Excelsior
L 1.01 created, 3.53 conceded against Feyenoord
W 2.55 created, 1.40 conceded against SC Telstar
D 1.73 created, 1.92 conceded against FC Utrecht

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Excelsior: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Excelsior against Sparta Rotterdam before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.80	+8.8%	Lost
Sparta Rotterdam at most 1 goal	1.73	+7.8%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.40	+3.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Excelsior	43.3%	43.8%	−0.5 pp	2.31
Draw	28.6%	24.8%	+3.8 pp	3.49
Sparta Rotterdam	28.0%	31.4%	−3.4 pp	3.57

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Excelsior to score	82.4%	79.2%	+3.2 pp	1.21
Excelsior not to score	17.6%	20.8%	−3.2 pp	5.69
Sparta Rotterdam to score	75.0%	76.6%	−1.6 pp	1.33
Sparta Rotterdam not to score	25.0%	23.4%	+1.6 pp	4.00
Both teams to score	63.4%	62.5%	+0.9 pp	1.58
Both teams not to score	36.6%	37.5%	−0.9 pp	2.74
Excelsior 2+ goals	49.3%	50.0%	−0.7 pp	2.03
Excelsior at most 1 goal	50.7%	50.0%	+0.7 pp	1.97
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals	37.6%	46.3%	−8.8 pp	2.66
Sparta Rotterdam at most 1 goal	62.4%	53.7%	+8.8 pp	1.60
Over 1.5 goals	82.4%	82.8%	−0.4 pp	1.21
Under 1.5 goals	17.6%	17.2%	+0.4 pp	5.67
Over 2.5 goals	56.9%	61.0%	−4.1 pp	1.76
Under 2.5 goals	43.1%	39.0%	+4.1 pp	2.32

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Excelsior sample: 20 matches
Sparta Rotterdam sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.