Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 18:45
Full timeSparta Rotterdam 3:3 FC Utrecht
FC Utrecht were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. It finished 3–3. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 16' Matisse Didden FC Utrecht · 0.21 xG chance 0–1
- 45' Marvin Young Sparta Rotterdam · 0.14 xG chance 1–1
- 46' Artem Stepanov FC Utrecht · 0.99 xG chance 1–2
- 67' Milan Zonneveld Sparta Rotterdam · 0.55 xG chance 2–2
- 76' Adrian Blake FC Utrecht · 0.04 xG chance 2–3
- 90' Nick Verschuren Sparta Rotterdam · 0.13 xG chance 3–3
The model against the result
- Sparta Rotterdam
- 33%
- Draw
- 27% What happened
- FC Utrecht
- 39%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 16
- On target
- 5
- 4
- Inside the box
- 9
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 1.50
- 1.40
- Set-piece xG
- 0.28
- 0.53
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.73 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.92 for FC Utrecht.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 3.71 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Sparta Rotterdam
- FC Utrecht
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.53 xG created 2.26 xGA
1.87 xG created 1.22 xGA
- W 2.90 created, 0.45 conceded against NAC Breda
- W 2.09 created, 0.48 conceded against Fortuna Sittard
- W 2.08 created, 1.26 conceded against SC Heerenveen
- D 0.96 created, 1.47 conceded against AFC Ajax
- L 2.27 created, 1.55 conceded against FC Groningen
- L 0.91 created, 2.10 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | +11.1% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | +10.2% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +4.7% | Won |
| FC Utrecht to win | 2.63 | +3.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 33.5% | 36.1% | −2.6 pp | 2.99 |
| Draw | 27.1% | 27.9% | −0.7 pp | 3.69 |
| FC Utrecht | 39.4% | 36.1% | +3.3 pp | 2.54 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 70.1% | 58.9% | +11.2 pp | 1.43 |
| Both teams not to score | 29.9% | 41.1% | −11.2 pp | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.3% | 78.3% | +9.0 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12.7% | 21.7% | −9.0 pp | 7.87 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% | 55.3% | +10.1 pp | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.7% | 44.7% | −10.1 pp | 2.88 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sparta Rotterdam sample
- 20 matches
- FC Utrecht sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.