xgEdge

Expected goals

FC Utrecht expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Eredivisie · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

FC Utrecht's attacking and defensive expected goals in Eredivisie 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

FC Utrecht xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.41 xG per match
#10/18
Attack (xG per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 PSV Eindhoven 2.87
#2 Feyenoord 2.76
#3 AFC Ajax 2.65
#4 AZ Alkmaar 2.55
#5 FC Twente 2.28
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 1.91
#7 Sparta Rotterdam 1.64
#8 NEC Nijmegen 1.60
#9 FC Groningen 1.54
#10 FC Utrecht 1.41
#11 SC Cambuur 1.35
#12 Excelsior 1.35
#13 Willem II Tilburg 1.29
#14 SC Heerenveen 1.26
#15 SC Telstar 1.09
#16 Fortuna Sittard 0.97
#17 PEC Zwolle 0.94
#18 ADO Den Haag 0.90
League avg
1.69
Total
9.87 7 matches
Defence
2.11 xGA per match
#16/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Twente 0.75
#2 Feyenoord 0.80
#3 AZ Alkmaar 0.95
#4 AFC Ajax 1.25
#5 SC Heerenveen 1.36
#6 PSV Eindhoven 1.37
#7 Excelsior 1.44
#8 Go Ahead Eagles 1.63
#9 ADO Den Haag 1.90
#10 NEC Nijmegen 1.92
#11 FC Groningen 1.93
#12 SC Cambuur 2.04
#13 SC Telstar 2.05
#14 PEC Zwolle 2.06
#15 Sparta Rotterdam 2.10
#16 FC Utrecht 2.11
#17 Willem II Tilburg 2.28
#18 Fortuna Sittard 2.42
League avg
1.69
Total
14.77 7 matches
xG difference
-0.70 xGD per match
#13/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Feyenoord +1.96
#2 AZ Alkmaar +1.60
#3 FC Twente +1.53
#4 PSV Eindhoven +1.51
#5 AFC Ajax +1.40
#6 Go Ahead Eagles +0.28
#7 Excelsior -0.09
#8 SC Heerenveen -0.10
#9 NEC Nijmegen -0.32
#10 FC Groningen -0.39
#11 Sparta Rotterdam -0.46
#12 SC Cambuur -0.68
#13 FC Utrecht -0.70
#14 SC Telstar -0.96
#15 Willem II Tilburg -0.99
#16 ADO Den Haag -1.00
#17 PEC Zwolle -1.12
#18 Fortuna Sittard -1.46
League avg
0.00
Total
-4.90 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.14 xPts per match
#12/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Feyenoord 2.49
#2 FC Twente 2.43
#3 AZ Alkmaar 2.30
#4 AFC Ajax 2.20
#5 PSV Eindhoven 2.18
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 1.59
#7 Excelsior 1.31
#8 FC Groningen 1.28
#9 SC Heerenveen 1.28
#10 NEC Nijmegen 1.18
#11 Sparta Rotterdam 1.15
#12 FC Utrecht 1.14
#13 SC Cambuur 0.91
#14 ADO Den Haag 0.85
#15 SC Telstar 0.79
#16 Willem II Tilburg 0.79
#17 PEC Zwolle 0.73
#18 Fortuna Sittard 0.72
League avg
1.41
Total
7.98 vs 5 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

FC Utrecht's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Eredivisie. They rank #13 for xG difference at -0.70 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 11 goals are 1.13 above 9.87 xG, while 5 points are 2.98 below 7.98 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.86 xG from penalties
11 9.87 +1.13 scored 1.13 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
24 14.77 +9.23 conceded 9.23 more than xGA far outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
5 7.98 -2.98 2.98 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

FC Utrecht are 1.13 goals above their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at +1.71, against Excelsior on Sun 13/09.

Goals
11
xG
9.87
Gap
+1.13
Sun 09/08 Sat 15/08 Sat 22/08 Sun 30/08 Tue 08/09 Sun 13/09 Sun 20/09 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.27 -1.18 -0.10 +0.60 +1.13 +1.71 +1.13 -1.27 +0.09 +1.08 +0.70 +0.53 +0.58 -0.58 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
FC Utrecht: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 09/08 FC Groningen 1 2.27 -1.27 -1.27
Sat 15/08 AZ Alkmaar 1 0.91 +0.09 -1.18
Sat 22/08 Sparta Rotterdam 3 1.92 +1.08 -0.10
Sun 30/08 PSV Eindhoven 1 0.30 +0.70 +0.60
Tue 08/09 Go Ahead Eagles 3 2.47 +0.53 +1.13
Sun 13/09 Excelsior 2 1.42 +0.58 +1.71
Sun 20/09 Feyenoord 0 0.58 -0.58 +1.13

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

FC Utrecht xG trend

Current form -0.82 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 7 matches. The worst was against PSV Eindhoven on Sun 30/08 (-2.50).

npxG · last 6
1.12
npxGA · last 6
1.94
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +0.72 Sun 09/08 -1.10 Sat 15/08 +0.19 Sat 22/08 -2.50 Sun 30/08 -0.26 Tue 08/09 +0.81 Sun 13/09 -2.04 Sun 20/09 -0.60 season avg
FC Utrecht: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 09/08 FC Groningen 2.27 1.55 +0.72 +0.72
Sat 15/08 AZ Alkmaar 0.83 1.93 -1.10 -0.19
Sat 22/08 Sparta Rotterdam 1.92 1.73 +0.19 -0.06
Sun 30/08 PSV Eindhoven 0.30 2.80 -2.50 -0.67
Tue 08/09 Go Ahead Eagles 1.68 1.94 -0.26 -0.59
Sun 13/09 Excelsior 1.42 0.61 +0.81 -0.36
Sun 20/09 Feyenoord 0.59 2.63 -2.04 -0.60

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.29 npxG and 1.88 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 2 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
+0.23 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 2 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
+0.22 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.23 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 2 hardest of 18

  1. Feyenoord Away +0.87
  2. Excelsior Away −0.16
  3. Go Ahead Eagles Home −0.13
  4. PSV Eindhoven Home +0.84
  5. Sparta Rotterdam Away −0.34
  6. AZ Alkmaar Home +0.56
  7. FC Groningen Away −0.04

Last 5

+0.22 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 2 hardest of 18

  1. Feyenoord Away +0.87
  2. Excelsior Away −0.16
  3. Go Ahead Eagles Home −0.13
  4. PSV Eindhoven Home +0.84
  5. Sparta Rotterdam Away −0.34

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

FC Utrecht shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. FC Utrecht take 10.9 shots a match (league 15.0) at 0.12 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #15 in Eredivisie for volume and #6 for quality. 70% of their shots come from inside the box (league 66%), and set pieces produce 17% of their npxG (league 18%).

Attack

Shot volume
10.9 shots per match
#15/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AFC Ajax 24.7
#2 Feyenoord 22.3
#3 FC Twente 21.6
#4 PSV Eindhoven 21.0
#5 AZ Alkmaar 19.4
#6 SC Heerenveen 16.0
=7 Go Ahead Eagles 15.1
=7 NEC Nijmegen 15.1
#9 FC Groningen 15.0
#10 Sparta Rotterdam 13.1
=11 ADO Den Haag 11.9
=11 SC Cambuur 11.9
=11 Willem II Tilburg 11.9
#14 Excelsior 11.3
#15 FC Utrecht 10.9
#16 PEC Zwolle 10.6
#17 Fortuna Sittard 10.1
#18 SC Telstar 7.9
League avg
15.0
Total
76 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.12 npxG per shot
#6/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 AZ Alkmaar 0.13
#2 Go Ahead Eagles 0.13
#3 PSV Eindhoven 0.13
#4 Sparta Rotterdam 0.12
#5 Excelsior 0.12
#6 FC Utrecht 0.12
#7 Feyenoord 0.12
#8 SC Cambuur 0.11
#9 Willem II Tilburg 0.11
#10 AFC Ajax 0.11
#11 SC Telstar 0.10
#12 NEC Nijmegen 0.10
#13 FC Groningen 0.10
#14 FC Twente 0.09
#15 Fortuna Sittard 0.09
#16 PEC Zwolle 0.09
#17 SC Heerenveen 0.08
#18 ADO Den Haag 0.08
League avg
0.11
Total
9.01 npxG from 76 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
18.6 shots per match
#15/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AZ Alkmaar 8.1
=2 AFC Ajax 9.6
=2 Feyenoord 9.6
#4 FC Twente 10.0
#5 PSV Eindhoven 10.1
#6 NEC Nijmegen 11.6
#7 FC Groningen 15.1
=8 SC Cambuur 15.9
=8 SC Heerenveen 15.9
=10 ADO Den Haag 16.1
=10 Excelsior 16.1
#12 Go Ahead Eagles 16.6
#13 SC Telstar 17.9
#14 Sparta Rotterdam 18.0
#15 FC Utrecht 18.6
#16 Willem II Tilburg 19.9
#17 Fortuna Sittard 20.3
#18 PEC Zwolle 20.4
League avg
15.0
Total
130 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#7/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FC Twente 0.06
#2 Feyenoord 0.08
#3 Excelsior 0.09
#4 SC Heerenveen 0.09
#5 Go Ahead Eagles 0.09
#6 PEC Zwolle 0.10
#7 FC Utrecht 0.10
#8 SC Telstar 0.11
#9 ADO Den Haag 0.11
#10 SC Cambuur 0.11
#11 Willem II Tilburg 0.11
#12 Fortuna Sittard 0.12
#13 Sparta Rotterdam 0.12
#14 AZ Alkmaar 0.12
#15 FC Groningen 0.12
#16 AFC Ajax 0.13
#17 PSV Eindhoven 0.13
#18 NEC Nijmegen 0.17
League avg
0.11
Total
13.19 npxGA from 130 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

70% inside the box

League avg 66%

From 53 of 76 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

64% allowed inside the box

League avg 66%

From 83 of 130 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

83% open play · 17% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 1.6 of 9.1 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

81% open play · 19% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 2.4 of 13.1 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

FC Utrecht home and away xG

FC Utrecht per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 1.23 1.55
xGA / match 2.49 1.83
xGD / match -1.26 -0.28
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.80 1.39

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every FC Utrecht match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.41
xGA / match
2.11
xGD / match
-0.70
Points
5 of 21
  1. Sun 20/09 Feyenoord A xG 0.58 xGA 3.41 P xGD -2.83
  2. Sun 13/09 Excelsior A Best underlying xG 1.42 xGA 0.61 xGD +0.81
  3. Tue 08/09 Go Ahead Eagles H xG 2.47 P xGA 1.79 xGD +0.68
  4. Sun 30/08 PSV Eindhoven H Weakest underlying xG 0.30 xGA 3.58 P xGD -3.28
  5. Sat 22/08 Sparta Rotterdam A xG 1.92 xGA 1.73 xGD +0.19
  6. Sat 15/08 AZ Alkmaar H xG 0.91 xGA 2.10 xGD -1.19
  7. Sun 09/08 FC Groningen A xG 2.27 xGA 1.55 xGD +0.72

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.58. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

FC Utrecht in Eredivisie

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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