Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 12:15
7d 9h to kick-offFC Utrecht – Willem II Tilburg
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- FC Utrecht
- 55%
- Draw
- 24%
- Willem II Tilburg
- 21%
| FC Utrecht | Draw | Willem II Tilburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.81 | 4.20 | 4.78 |
- Total goals
- 3.48
- Over 2.5 goals
- 70%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 5 outcomes.
-
FC Utrecht
- Model
- 55.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 63.9%
- Probability gap
- −8.6 pp
- Edge
- −19.8%
- Fair odds
- 1.81
- Market odds
- 1.45 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.90
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.9%
-
Draw
- Model
- 23.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 20.6%
- Probability gap
- +3.2 pp
- Edge
- +7.1%
- Fair odds
- 4.20
- Market odds
- 4.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.41
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.9%
-
Willem II Tilburg
- Model
- 20.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 15.5%
- Probability gap
- +5.4 pp
- Edge
- +25.4%
- Fair odds
- 4.78
- Market odds
- 6.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 5.02
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.9%
Outcomes with value
Willem II Tilburg to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Willem II Tilburg to win
Model 20.9% vs. bookmaker 15.5%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: Willem II Tilburg to win
What the model's reading is made of
- The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches. Everything behind this edge rests on that, which is too little to set out as a reason.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | FC Utrecht | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | -0.94 | -1.00 |
| Goals scored minus expected | +1.13 | -3.02 |
| Points won minus expected | -2.98 | -3.52 |
| npxG per shot | 0.12 | 0.11 |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model leans FC Utrecht
55% FC Utrecht to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 18th
- FC Utrecht attack v Willem II Tilburg defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 13th
- FC Utrecht defence v Willem II Tilburg attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.94 vs -1.00
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.14 – 1.34
- FC Utrecht v Willem II Tilburg
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Utrecht | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.41 · 10th | 1.29 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 2.11 · 16th | 2.28 · 17th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.70 · 13th | -0.99 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.14 · 12th | 0.79 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.94 | -1.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- FC Utrecht clean sheet
- 23%
- FC Utrecht 2+ goals
- 66%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 30%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 10.7%
- 1:1
- 10.3%
- 3:1
- 7.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Utrecht sample
- 20 matches
- Willem II Tilburg sample
- 7 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Utrecht
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Willem II Tilburg
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Warnings
- Willem II Tilburg has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.