FC Utrecht 1:6 PSV Eindhoven: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 12:15

Full time

Match report · Eredivisie

FC Utrecht Home 0.30 xG · 1 shots

PSV Eindhoven Away 3.58 xG · 30 shots

16 The scoreline reflected the chances

PSV Eindhoven were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 6–1. The biggest difference was PSV Eindhoven's attack: 3.58 xG against 1.97 projected (+1.61). FC Utrecht produced 0.30 xG against 1.46 projected (−1.16).

Goals

6' Artem Stepanov FC Utrecht · 0.31 xG chance 1–0
11' Ruben van Bommel PSV Eindhoven · 0.05 xG chance 1–1
45' Guus Til PSV Eindhoven · 0.16 xG chance 1–2
76' Mauro Júnior PSV Eindhoven · 0.03 xG chance 1–3
86' Sven Mijnans PSV Eindhoven · 0.05 xG chance 1–4
88' Guus Til PSV Eindhoven · 0.63 xG chance 1–5
90' Sergiño Dest PSV Eindhoven · 0.58 xG chance 1–6

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Utrecht: 26%
Draw: 25%
PSV Eindhoven: 49% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Utrecht 1.46 0.30 -1.16

PSV Eindhoven 1.97 3.58 +1.61

PSV Eindhoven produced 1.61 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Utrecht PSV Eindhoven

Shots: 1; 30
On target: 1; 14
Inside the box: 1; 15
xG per shot: 0.31; 0.12
Open play xG: 0.31; 1.97
Set-piece xG: 0.00; 0.76
Penalties: 0; 1

FC Utrecht's shots add up to 0.31 xG and PSV Eindhoven's to 3.55; the published figures are 0.30 and 3.58.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 3.86 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Utrecht

1.71 xG created 1.43 xGA

W 2.09 created, 0.48 conceded against Fortuna Sittard
W 2.08 created, 1.26 conceded against SC Heerenveen
D 0.96 created, 1.47 conceded against AFC Ajax
L 2.27 created, 1.55 conceded against FC Groningen
L 0.91 created, 2.10 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
D 1.92 created, 1.73 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam

PSV Eindhoven

2.57 xG created 0.96 xGA

W 1.88 created, 0.83 conceded against PEC Zwolle
D 1.80 created, 0.95 conceded against AFC Ajax
W 2.49 created, 1.41 conceded against FC Twente
D 2.56 created, 0.98 conceded against Fortuna Sittard
W 2.24 created, 0.51 conceded against Excelsior
W 4.42 created, 1.09 conceded against FC Groningen

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Utrecht: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged2 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Utrecht against PSV Eindhoven before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Utrecht to win	5.25	+17.6%	Lost
FC Utrecht 2+ goals	2.38	+10.3%	Lost
Draw	5.00	+9.7%	Lost
FC Utrecht to score	1.29	+3.2%	Won
Both teams to score	1.40	+2.9%	Won
PSV Eindhoven at most 1 goal	3.40	+2.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Utrecht	26.1%	18.0%	+8.1 pp	3.83
Draw	25.3%	18.9%	+6.4 pp	3.95
PSV Eindhoven	48.6%	63.1%	−14.5 pp	2.06

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Utrecht to score	79.4%	73.1%	+6.3 pp	1.26
FC Utrecht not to score	20.6%	26.9%	−6.3 pp	4.85
PSV Eindhoven to score	88.2%	91.3%	−3.1 pp	1.13
PSV Eindhoven not to score	11.8%	8.7%	+3.1 pp	8.48
Both teams to score	71.3%	66.3%	+5.0 pp	1.40
Both teams not to score	28.7%	33.7%	−5.0 pp	3.48
FC Utrecht 2+ goals	44.1%	39.2%	+4.9 pp	2.27
FC Utrecht at most 1 goal	55.9%	60.8%	−4.9 pp	1.79
PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals	60.8%	72.3%	−11.5 pp	1.64
PSV Eindhoven at most 1 goal	39.2%	27.7%	+11.5 pp	2.55
Over 1.5 goals	89.0%	89.4%	−0.3 pp	1.12
Under 1.5 goals	11.0%	10.6%	+0.3 pp	9.11
Over 2.5 goals	68.8%	73.7%	−4.8 pp	1.45
Under 2.5 goals	31.2%	26.3%	+4.8 pp	3.21

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Utrecht sample: 20 matches
PSV Eindhoven sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.