Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 14:30
Full timePSV Eindhoven 5:1 FC Groningen
PSV Eindhoven were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 5–1. The biggest difference was PSV Eindhoven's attack: 4.42 xG against 1.90 projected (+2.52).
Goals
- 9' Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson FC Groningen · 0.25 xG chance 0–1
- 11' Thijmen Blokzijl (o.g.) PSV Eindhoven · 0.17 xG chance 1–1
- 35' Ivan Perišić PSV Eindhoven · 0.21 xG chance 2–1
- 45' Ricardo Pepi (pen.) PSV Eindhoven · 0.82 xG chance 3–1
- 53' Ivan Perišić PSV Eindhoven · 0.24 xG chance 4–1
- 56' Sergiño Dest PSV Eindhoven · 0.46 xG chance 5–1
The model against the result
- PSV Eindhoven
- 53% What happened
- Draw
- 26%
- FC Groningen
- 21%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
PSV Eindhoven produced 2.52 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 25
- 7
- On target
- 13
- 4
- Inside the box
- 19
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.19
- 0.16
- Open play xG
- 3.40
- 1.12
- Set-piece xG
- 0.56
- 0.00
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.88 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.09 for FC Groningen.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 5.90 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- PSV Eindhoven
- FC Groningen
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.17 xG created 0.98 xGA
- W 2.05 created, 1.20 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- W 1.88 created, 0.83 conceded against PEC Zwolle
- D 1.80 created, 0.95 conceded against AFC Ajax
- W 2.49 created, 1.41 conceded against FC Twente
- D 2.56 created, 0.98 conceded against Fortuna Sittard
- W 2.24 created, 0.51 conceded against Excelsior
1.46 xG created 1.57 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen to win | 8.50 | +80.5% | Lost |
| PSV Eindhoven not to score | 13.00 | +67.4% | Lost |
| PSV Eindhoven at most 1 goal | 3.50 | +45.2% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | +30.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.00 | +30.1% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 8.00 | +18.6% | Lost |
| FC Groningen 2+ goals | 3.25 | +11.4% | Lost |
| FC Groningen to score | 1.44 | +5.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 52.7% | 69.8% | −17.0 pp | 1.90 |
| Draw | 26.0% | 19.0% | +7.0 pp | 3.84 |
| FC Groningen | 21.2% | 11.2% | +10.0 pp | 4.71 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven to score | 87.1% | 92.6% | −5.5 pp | 1.15 |
| PSV Eindhoven not to score | 12.9% | 7.4% | +5.5 pp | 7.76 |
| FC Groningen to score | 72.7% | 64.5% | +8.2 pp | 1.37 |
| FC Groningen not to score | 27.3% | 35.5% | −8.2 pp | 3.67 |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | 60.8% | +4.0 pp | 1.54 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.2% | 39.2% | −4.0 pp | 2.84 |
| PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals | 58.5% | 73.1% | −14.6 pp | 1.71 |
| PSV Eindhoven at most 1 goal | 41.5% | 26.9% | +14.6 pp | 2.41 |
| FC Groningen 2+ goals | 34.3% | 29.1% | +5.2 pp | 2.92 |
| FC Groningen at most 1 goal | 65.7% | 70.9% | −5.2 pp | 1.52 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.2% | 88.1% | −2.9 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.8% | 11.9% | +2.9 pp | 6.74 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | 71.8% | −10.1 pp | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.3% | 28.2% | +10.1 pp | 2.61 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- PSV Eindhoven sample
- 20 matches
- FC Groningen sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 36 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.