FC Utrecht 3:3 Go Ahead Eagles: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Tuesday, 08/09/2026 at 14:00

Full time

Match report · Eredivisie

FC Utrecht Home 2.47 xG · 19 shots

Go Ahead Eagles Away 1.79 xG · 13 shots

33 FC Utrecht had the better chances, but it finished level

FC Utrecht were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. It finished 3–3. The biggest difference was Go Ahead Eagles's attack: 1.79 xG against 1.50 projected (+0.29).

Goals

18' Mathis Suray Go Ahead Eagles · 0.03 xG chance 0–1
49' Søren Tengstedt Go Ahead Eagles · 0.49 xG chance 0–2
58' Victor Edvardsen Go Ahead Eagles · 0.42 xG chance 0–3
63' Dani De Wit FC Utrecht · 0.13 xG chance 1–3
76' Matisse Didden FC Utrecht · 0.05 xG chance 2–3
90' Artem Stepanov (pen.) FC Utrecht · 0.82 xG chance 3–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Utrecht: 54%
Draw: 23% What happened
Go Ahead Eagles: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Utrecht 2.26 2.47 +0.21

Go Ahead Eagles 1.50 1.79 +0.29

Go Ahead Eagles produced 0.29 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Utrecht Go Ahead Eagles

Shots: 19; 13
On target: 6; 7
Inside the box: 14; 10
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.15
Open play xG: 1.41; 1.23
Set-piece xG: 0.31; 0.73
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.68 for FC Utrecht and 1.94 for Go Ahead Eagles.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 4.50 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Utrecht
Go Ahead Eagles
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Utrecht

1.41 xG created 1.95 xGA

W 2.08 created, 1.26 conceded against SC Heerenveen
D 0.96 created, 1.47 conceded against AFC Ajax
L 2.27 created, 1.55 conceded against FC Groningen
L 0.91 created, 2.10 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
D 1.92 created, 1.73 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
L 0.30 created, 3.58 conceded against PSV Eindhoven

Go Ahead Eagles

1.57 xG created 2.34 xGA

D 2.08 created, 1.89 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
L 0.32 created, 4.44 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
W 2.43 created, 1.51 conceded against Willem II Tilburg
D 1.77 created, 2.83 conceded against Feyenoord
W 1.01 created, 0.99 conceded against ADO Den Haag
L 1.82 created, 2.39 conceded against AZ Alkmaar

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FC Utrecht: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged0 won0 lost4 void

Void
Void
Void
Void

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Utrecht against Go Ahead Eagles before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Utrecht to win	2.20	+19.5%	Void
Over 2.5 goals	1.50	+12.1%	Void
Both teams to score	1.50	+11.6%	Void
Over 1.5 goals	1.14	+4.9%	Void

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Utrecht	54.3%	43.5%	+10.8 pp	1.84
Draw	23.0%	24.6%	−1.6 pp	4.35
Go Ahead Eagles	22.7%	31.9%	−9.2 pp	4.41

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	74.4%	62.5%	+11.9 pp	1.34
Both teams not to score	25.6%	37.5%	−11.9 pp	3.90
Over 1.5 goals	91.8%	82.8%	+9.0 pp	1.09
Under 1.5 goals	8.2%	17.2%	−9.0 pp	12.19
Over 2.5 goals	74.8%	62.5%	+12.3 pp	1.34
Under 2.5 goals	25.2%	37.5%	−12.3 pp	3.96

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Utrecht sample: 20 matches
Go Ahead Eagles sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 days before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.