Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 18:45
Full timeAZ Alkmaar 5:2 Go Ahead Eagles
AZ Alkmaar were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 69%. They won 5–2. The biggest difference was Go Ahead Eagles's attack: 1.82 xG against 1.03 projected (+0.79).
Goals
- 7' Dave Kwakman AZ Alkmaar · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
- 22' Victor Edvardsen Go Ahead Eagles · 0.52 xG chance 1–1
- 35' Ro-Zangelo Daal AZ Alkmaar · 0.06 xG chance 2–1
- 49' Lewis Schouten AZ Alkmaar · 0.25 xG chance 3–1
- 68' Mateo Chávez AZ Alkmaar · 0.05 xG chance 4–1
- 86' Ro-Zangelo Daal AZ Alkmaar · 0.12 xG chance 5–1
- 90' Mathis Suray Go Ahead Eagles · 0.91 xG chance 5–2
The model against the result
- AZ Alkmaar
- 69% What happened
- Draw
- 19%
- Go Ahead Eagles
- 11%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Go Ahead Eagles produced 0.79 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 10
- On target
- 8
- 4
- Inside the box
- 13
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.20
- Open play xG
- 2.15
- 1.71
- Set-piece xG
- 0.31
- 0.25
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.39 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.96 for Go Ahead Eagles.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 4.42 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- AZ Alkmaar
- Go Ahead Eagles
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.25 xG created 1.11 xGA
- D 1.52 created, 1.79 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
- D 1.39 created, 0.46 conceded against FC Twente
- D 1.45 created, 2.08 conceded against NAC Breda
- W 2.67 created, 0.95 conceded against ADO Den Haag
- W 2.10 created, 0.91 conceded against FC Utrecht
- W 4.35 created, 0.44 conceded against Fortuna Sittard
1.57 xG created 2.20 xGA
- D 1.79 created, 1.52 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
- D 2.08 created, 1.89 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- L 0.32 created, 4.44 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
- W 2.43 created, 1.51 conceded against Willem II Tilburg
- D 1.77 created, 2.83 conceded against Feyenoord
- W 1.01 created, 0.99 conceded against ADO Den Haag
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 5.25 | +1.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 69.4% | 69.1% | +0.2 pp | 1.44 |
| Draw | 19.4% | 18.2% | +1.2 pp | 5.16 |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 11.3% | 12.7% | −1.5 pp | 8.89 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar to score | 93.1% | 91.3% | +1.8 pp | 1.07 |
| AZ Alkmaar not to score | 6.9% | 8.7% | −1.8 pp | 14.53 |
| Go Ahead Eagles to score | 67.0% | 64.5% | +2.5 pp | 1.49 |
| Go Ahead Eagles not to score | 33.0% | 35.5% | −2.5 pp | 3.03 |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | 58.9% | +4.6 pp | 1.58 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.6% | 41.1% | −4.6 pp | 2.74 |
| AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals | 73.1% | 70.9% | +2.1 pp | 1.37 |
| AZ Alkmaar at most 1 goal | 26.9% | 29.1% | −2.1 pp | 3.71 |
| Go Ahead Eagles 2+ goals | 27.4% | 29.1% | −1.7 pp | 3.65 |
| Go Ahead Eagles at most 1 goal | 72.6% | 70.9% | +1.7 pp | 1.38 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.4% | 86.4% | +3.0 pp | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10.6% | 13.6% | −3.0 pp | 9.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.0% | 69.4% | +0.6 pp | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.0% | 30.6% | −0.6 pp | 3.33 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AZ Alkmaar sample
- 20 matches
- Go Ahead Eagles sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.