Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 12:15
Full timeFeyenoord 5:0 FC Utrecht
Feyenoord were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 61%. They won 5–0. The biggest difference was Feyenoord's attack: 3.41 xG against 2.20 projected (+1.21). FC Utrecht produced 0.58 xG against 1.16 projected (−0.58).
Goals
- 6' Anis Hadj Moussa Feyenoord · 0.08 xG chance 1–0
- 9' Nacho Ferri Feyenoord · 0.05 xG chance 2–0
- 33' Anis Hadj Moussa Feyenoord · 0.09 xG chance 3–0
- 53' Luciano Valente (pen.) Feyenoord · 0.82 xG chance 4–0
- 64' Gaoussou Diarra Feyenoord · 0.05 xG chance 5–0
The model against the result
- Feyenoord
- 61% What happened
- Draw
- 23%
- FC Utrecht
- 16%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Feyenoord produced 1.21 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 23
- 6
- On target
- 12
- 1
- Inside the box
- 20
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 2.32
- 0.58
- Set-piece xG
- 0.28
- 0.01
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.63 for Feyenoord and 0.59 for FC Utrecht.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 4.01 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Feyenoord
- FC Utrecht
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.65 xG created 0.84 xGA
- W 3.53 created, 1.01 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- D 2.83 created, 1.77 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
- W 2.57 created, 1.07 conceded against SC Cambuur
- D 2.47 created, 0.24 conceded against ADO Den Haag
- W 1.11 created, 0.74 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
- W 3.40 created, 0.19 conceded against PEC Zwolle
1.55 xG created 1.89 xGA
- L 2.27 created, 1.55 conceded against FC Groningen
- L 0.91 created, 2.10 conceded against AZ Alkmaar
- D 1.92 created, 1.73 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- L 0.30 created, 3.58 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
- D 2.47 created, 1.79 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
- W 1.42 created, 0.61 conceded against Excelsior
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged0 won8 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht to win | 9.50 | +55.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.75 | +30.7% | Lost |
| Feyenoord at most 1 goal | 3.75 | +24.0% | Lost |
| Feyenoord not to score | 13.00 | +20.0% | Lost |
| FC Utrecht 2+ goals | 3.50 | +14.3% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | +10.8% | Lost |
| FC Utrecht to score | 1.50 | +7.1% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +6.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 60.9% | 73.6% | −12.7 pp | 1.64 |
| Draw | 22.7% | 16.5% | +6.3 pp | 4.40 |
| FC Utrecht | 16.4% | 10.0% | +6.4 pp | 6.10 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord to score | 90.8% | 92.6% | −1.8 pp | 1.10 |
| Feyenoord not to score | 9.2% | 7.4% | +1.8 pp | 10.84 |
| FC Utrecht to score | 71.4% | 62.5% | +8.9 pp | 1.40 |
| FC Utrecht not to score | 28.6% | 37.5% | −8.9 pp | 3.50 |
| Both teams to score | 66.0% | 57.7% | +8.3 pp | 1.51 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.0% | 42.3% | −8.3 pp | 2.94 |
| Feyenoord 2+ goals | 66.9% | 75.0% | −8.1 pp | 1.49 |
| Feyenoord at most 1 goal | 33.1% | 25.0% | +8.1 pp | 3.02 |
| FC Utrecht 2+ goals | 32.7% | 26.9% | +5.8 pp | 3.06 |
| FC Utrecht at most 1 goal | 67.3% | 73.1% | −5.8 pp | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.2% | 88.1% | +0.1 pp | 1.13 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11.8% | 11.9% | −0.1 pp | 8.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.4% | 71.8% | −4.4 pp | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.6% | 28.2% | +4.4 pp | 3.07 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Feyenoord sample
- 20 matches
- FC Utrecht sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.