Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 16:45
Full timePEC Zwolle 0:7 Feyenoord
Feyenoord were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. They won 7–0. The biggest difference was Feyenoord's attack: 3.40 xG against 1.96 projected (+1.44). PEC Zwolle produced 0.19 xG against 1.11 projected (−0.92).
Goals
- 18' Simon Graves (o.g.) Feyenoord · 0.10 xG chance 0–1
- 23' Nacho Ferri Feyenoord · 0.22 xG chance 0–2
- 40' Gjivai Zechiël Feyenoord · 0.22 xG chance 0–3
- 49' Nacho Ferri Feyenoord · 0.54 xG chance 0–4
- 63' Anis Hadj Moussa Feyenoord · 0.08 xG chance 0–5
- 69' Jivayno Zinhagel Feyenoord · 0.13 xG chance 0–6
- 77' Anis Hadj Moussa Feyenoord · 0.11 xG chance 0–7
The model against the result
- PEC Zwolle
- 18%
- Draw
- 25%
- Feyenoord
- 57% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Feyenoord produced 1.44 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 6
- 27
- On target
- 3
- 11
- Inside the box
- 1
- 20
- xG per shot
- 0.03
- 0.13
- Open play xG
- 0.16
- 2.72
- Set-piece xG
- 0.03
- 0.80
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.52 for Feyenoord.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
33 shots · 3.71 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- PEC Zwolle
- Feyenoord
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.13 xG created 2.14 xGA
- L 0.80 created, 3.21 conceded against Feyenoord
- L 0.59 created, 1.97 conceded against AFC Ajax
- L 0.80 created, 2.62 conceded against FC Twente
- W 1.55 created, 0.85 conceded against SC Heerenveen
- L 1.98 created, 1.98 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
- D 1.07 created, 2.23 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
2.62 xG created 0.94 xGA
- W 3.21 created, 0.80 conceded against PEC Zwolle
- W 3.53 created, 1.01 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- D 2.83 created, 1.77 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
- W 2.57 created, 1.07 conceded against SC Cambuur
- D 2.47 created, 0.24 conceded against ADO Den Haag
- W 1.11 created, 0.74 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 5.50 | +38.8% | Lost |
| Feyenoord at most 1 goal | 3.50 | +38.2% | Lost |
| Feyenoord not to score | 11.00 | +31.3% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | +20.2% | Lost |
| PEC Zwolle to win | 6.25 | +13.9% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 7.00 | +5.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 18.2% | 15.3% | +2.9 pp | 5.49 |
| Draw | 25.2% | 17.4% | +7.9 pp | 3.96 |
| Feyenoord | 56.5% | 67.3% | −10.8 pp | 1.77 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle to score | 70.2% | 68.7% | +1.4 pp | 1.43 |
| PEC Zwolle not to score | 29.8% | 31.3% | −1.4 pp | 3.35 |
| Feyenoord to score | 88.1% | 91.3% | −3.2 pp | 1.14 |
| Feyenoord not to score | 11.9% | 8.7% | +3.2 pp | 8.38 |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | 62.5% | +0.7 pp | 1.58 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.8% | 37.5% | −0.7 pp | 2.72 |
| PEC Zwolle 2+ goals | 30.8% | 33.7% | −3.0 pp | 3.25 |
| PEC Zwolle at most 1 goal | 69.2% | 66.3% | +3.0 pp | 1.44 |
| Feyenoord 2+ goals | 60.5% | 73.1% | −12.6 pp | 1.65 |
| Feyenoord at most 1 goal | 39.5% | 26.9% | +12.6 pp | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.9% | 86.4% | −1.5 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.1% | 13.6% | +1.5 pp | 6.63 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | 69.4% | −8.2 pp | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.8% | 30.6% | +8.2 pp | 2.58 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- PEC Zwolle sample
- 20 matches
- Feyenoord sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.