xgEdge

Expected goals

PEC Zwolle expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Eredivisie · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

PEC Zwolle's attacking and defensive expected goals in Eredivisie 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

PEC Zwolle xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.94 xG per match
#17/18
Attack (xG per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 PSV Eindhoven 2.87
#2 Feyenoord 2.76
#3 AFC Ajax 2.65
#4 AZ Alkmaar 2.55
#5 FC Twente 2.28
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 1.91
#7 Sparta Rotterdam 1.64
#8 NEC Nijmegen 1.60
#9 FC Groningen 1.54
#10 FC Utrecht 1.41
#11 SC Cambuur 1.35
#12 Excelsior 1.35
#13 Willem II Tilburg 1.29
#14 SC Heerenveen 1.26
#15 SC Telstar 1.09
#16 Fortuna Sittard 0.97
#17 PEC Zwolle 0.94
#18 ADO Den Haag 0.90
League avg
1.69
Total
6.61 7 matches
Defence
2.06 xGA per match
#14/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Twente 0.75
#2 Feyenoord 0.80
#3 AZ Alkmaar 0.95
#4 AFC Ajax 1.25
#5 SC Heerenveen 1.36
#6 PSV Eindhoven 1.37
#7 Excelsior 1.44
#8 Go Ahead Eagles 1.63
#9 ADO Den Haag 1.90
#10 NEC Nijmegen 1.92
#11 FC Groningen 1.93
#12 SC Cambuur 2.04
#13 SC Telstar 2.05
#14 PEC Zwolle 2.06
#15 Sparta Rotterdam 2.10
#16 FC Utrecht 2.11
#17 Willem II Tilburg 2.28
#18 Fortuna Sittard 2.42
League avg
1.69
Total
14.44 7 matches
xG difference
-1.12 xGD per match
#17/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Feyenoord +1.96
#2 AZ Alkmaar +1.60
#3 FC Twente +1.53
#4 PSV Eindhoven +1.51
#5 AFC Ajax +1.40
#6 Go Ahead Eagles +0.28
#7 Excelsior -0.09
#8 SC Heerenveen -0.10
#9 NEC Nijmegen -0.32
#10 FC Groningen -0.39
#11 Sparta Rotterdam -0.46
#12 SC Cambuur -0.68
#13 FC Utrecht -0.70
#14 SC Telstar -0.96
#15 Willem II Tilburg -0.99
#16 ADO Den Haag -1.00
#17 PEC Zwolle -1.12
#18 Fortuna Sittard -1.46
League avg
0.00
Total
-7.83 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.73 xPts per match
#17/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Feyenoord 2.49
#2 FC Twente 2.43
#3 AZ Alkmaar 2.30
#4 AFC Ajax 2.20
#5 PSV Eindhoven 2.18
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 1.59
#7 Excelsior 1.31
#8 FC Groningen 1.28
#9 SC Heerenveen 1.28
#10 NEC Nijmegen 1.18
#11 Sparta Rotterdam 1.15
#12 FC Utrecht 1.14
#13 SC Cambuur 0.91
#14 ADO Den Haag 0.85
#15 SC Telstar 0.79
#16 Willem II Tilburg 0.79
#17 PEC Zwolle 0.73
#18 Fortuna Sittard 0.72
League avg
1.41
Total
5.14 vs 4 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

PEC Zwolle's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Eredivisie. They rank #17 for xG difference at -1.12 per match, from low shot volume and low chance quality. Their 6 goals are 0.61 below 6.61 xG, while 4 points are 1.14 below 5.14 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
6 6.61 -0.61 scored 0.61 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
20 14.44 +5.56 conceded 5.56 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
4 5.14 -1.14 1.14 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

PEC Zwolle are 0.61 goals below their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at -0.92, against NEC Nijmegen on Sat 29/08.

Goals
6
xG
6.61
Gap
-0.61
Sun 09/08 Sun 16/08 Sat 22/08 Sat 29/08 Fri 04/09 Sun 13/09 Fri 18/09 -1 0 +1 -0.59 -0.39 +0.06 -0.92 +0.01 -0.18 -0.61 -0.59 +0.20 +0.45 -0.98 +0.93 -0.19 -0.43 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
PEC Zwolle: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 09/08 AFC Ajax 0 0.59 -0.59 -0.59
Sun 16/08 FC Twente 1 0.80 +0.20 -0.39
Sat 22/08 SC Heerenveen 2 1.55 +0.45 +0.06
Sat 29/08 NEC Nijmegen 1 1.98 -0.98 -0.92
Fri 04/09 Sparta Rotterdam 2 1.07 +0.93 +0.01
Sun 13/09 Feyenoord 0 0.19 -0.19 -0.18
Fri 18/09 FC Groningen 0 0.43 -0.43 -0.61

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

PEC Zwolle xG trend

Current form -1.07 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 1 of 7 matches. The worst was against Feyenoord on Sun 13/09 (-3.33).

npxG · last 6
0.96
npxGA · last 6
2.03
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.95 Sun 09/08 -1.53 Sun 16/08 +0.56 Sat 22/08 +0.00 Sat 29/08 -1.16 Fri 04/09 -3.33 Sun 13/09 -0.96 Fri 18/09 -1.05 season avg
PEC Zwolle: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 09/08 AFC Ajax 0.59 1.54 -0.95 -0.95
Sun 16/08 FC Twente 0.68 2.21 -1.53 -1.24
Sat 22/08 SC Heerenveen 1.41 0.85 +0.56 -0.64
Sat 29/08 NEC Nijmegen 1.98 1.98 +0.00 -0.48
Fri 04/09 Sparta Rotterdam 1.07 2.23 -1.16 -0.62
Sun 13/09 Feyenoord 0.19 3.52 -3.33 -1.07
Fri 18/09 FC Groningen 0.43 1.39 -0.96 -1.05

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.91 npxG and 1.96 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 1 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
+0.26 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 6 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
+0.09 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.26 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 1 hardest of 18

  1. FC Groningen Away −0.04
  2. Feyenoord Home +0.87
  3. Sparta Rotterdam Away −0.34
  4. NEC Nijmegen Home +0.13
  5. SC Heerenveen Away −0.17
  6. FC Twente Away +0.71
  7. AFC Ajax Home +0.62

Last 5

+0.09 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 6 hardest of 18

  1. FC Groningen Away −0.04
  2. Feyenoord Home +0.87
  3. Sparta Rotterdam Away −0.34
  4. NEC Nijmegen Home +0.13
  5. SC Heerenveen Away −0.17

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

PEC Zwolle shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. PEC Zwolle take 10.6 shots a match (league 15.0) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #16 in Eredivisie for volume and #16 for quality. 55% of their shots come from inside the box (league 66%), and set pieces produce 24% of their npxG (league 18%).

Attack

Shot volume
10.6 shots per match
#16/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AFC Ajax 24.7
#2 Feyenoord 22.3
#3 FC Twente 21.6
#4 PSV Eindhoven 21.0
#5 AZ Alkmaar 19.4
#6 SC Heerenveen 16.0
=7 Go Ahead Eagles 15.1
=7 NEC Nijmegen 15.1
#9 FC Groningen 15.0
#10 Sparta Rotterdam 13.1
=11 ADO Den Haag 11.9
=11 SC Cambuur 11.9
=11 Willem II Tilburg 11.9
#14 Excelsior 11.3
#15 FC Utrecht 10.9
#16 PEC Zwolle 10.6
#17 Fortuna Sittard 10.1
#18 SC Telstar 7.9
League avg
15.0
Total
74 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#16/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 AZ Alkmaar 0.13
#2 Go Ahead Eagles 0.13
#3 PSV Eindhoven 0.13
#4 Sparta Rotterdam 0.12
#5 Excelsior 0.12
#6 FC Utrecht 0.12
#7 Feyenoord 0.12
#8 SC Cambuur 0.11
#9 Willem II Tilburg 0.11
#10 AFC Ajax 0.11
#11 SC Telstar 0.10
#12 NEC Nijmegen 0.10
#13 FC Groningen 0.10
#14 FC Twente 0.09
#15 Fortuna Sittard 0.09
#16 PEC Zwolle 0.09
#17 SC Heerenveen 0.08
#18 ADO Den Haag 0.08
League avg
0.11
Total
6.35 npxG from 74 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
20.4 shots per match
#18/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AZ Alkmaar 8.1
=2 AFC Ajax 9.6
=2 Feyenoord 9.6
#4 FC Twente 10.0
#5 PSV Eindhoven 10.1
#6 NEC Nijmegen 11.6
#7 FC Groningen 15.1
=8 SC Cambuur 15.9
=8 SC Heerenveen 15.9
=10 ADO Den Haag 16.1
=10 Excelsior 16.1
#12 Go Ahead Eagles 16.6
#13 SC Telstar 17.9
#14 Sparta Rotterdam 18.0
#15 FC Utrecht 18.6
#16 Willem II Tilburg 19.9
#17 Fortuna Sittard 20.3
#18 PEC Zwolle 20.4
League avg
15.0
Total
143 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#6/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FC Twente 0.06
#2 Feyenoord 0.08
#3 Excelsior 0.09
#4 SC Heerenveen 0.09
#5 Go Ahead Eagles 0.09
#6 PEC Zwolle 0.10
#7 FC Utrecht 0.10
#8 SC Telstar 0.11
#9 ADO Den Haag 0.11
#10 SC Cambuur 0.11
#11 Willem II Tilburg 0.11
#12 Fortuna Sittard 0.12
#13 Sparta Rotterdam 0.12
#14 AZ Alkmaar 0.12
#15 FC Groningen 0.12
#16 AFC Ajax 0.13
#17 PSV Eindhoven 0.13
#18 NEC Nijmegen 0.17
League avg
0.11
Total
13.72 npxGA from 143 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

55% inside the box

League avg 66%

From 41 of 74 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

61% allowed inside the box

League avg 66%

From 87 of 143 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

76% open play · 24% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 1.1 of 4.8 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

80% open play · 20% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 2.4 of 12.1 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

PEC Zwolle home and away xG

PEC Zwolle per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 0.92 0.96
xGA / match 2.45 1.77
xGD / match -1.53 -0.81
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.60 0.83

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every PEC Zwolle match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
0.94
xGA / match
2.06
xGD / match
-1.12
Points
4 of 21
  1. Fri 18/09 FC Groningen A xG 0.43 xGA 1.39 xGD -0.96
  2. Sun 13/09 Feyenoord H Weakest underlying xG 0.19 xGA 3.40 xGD -3.21
  3. Fri 04/09 Sparta Rotterdam A xG 1.07 xGA 2.23 xGD -1.16
  4. Sat 29/08 NEC Nijmegen H xG 1.98 xGA 1.98 xGD +0.00
  5. Sat 22/08 SC Heerenveen A Best underlying xG 1.55 xGA 0.85 xGD +0.70
  6. Sun 16/08 FC Twente A xG 0.80 xGA 2.62 xGD -1.82
  7. Sun 09/08 AFC Ajax H xG 0.59 xGA 1.97 xGD -1.38

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.40. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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