Friday, 18/09/2026 at 20:00
Full timeFC Groningen 3:0 PEC Zwolle
FC Groningen were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was PEC Zwolle's attack: 0.43 xG against 1.29 projected (−0.86). FC Groningen produced 1.39 xG against 1.91 projected (−0.52).
Goals
- 20' Thom van Bergen FC Groningen · 0.15 xG chance 1–0
- 43' Jorg Schreuders FC Groningen · 0.08 xG chance 2–0
- 68' Tygo Land FC Groningen · 0.09 xG chance 3–0
The model against the result
- FC Groningen
- 51% What happened
- Draw
- 26%
- PEC Zwolle
- 23%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
PEC Zwolle produced 0.86 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 9
- On target
- 7
- 1
- Inside the box
- 8
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 1.09
- 0.19
- Set-piece xG
- 0.30
- 0.23
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.43 for PEC Zwolle.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 1.81 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Groningen
- PEC Zwolle
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.57 xG created 2.18 xGA
- W 1.55 created, 2.27 conceded against FC Utrecht
- W 3.20 created, 1.01 conceded against ADO Den Haag
- L 1.09 created, 4.42 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
- L 1.92 created, 0.87 conceded against Fortuna Sittard
- D 1.48 created, 2.30 conceded against FC Twente
- D 0.16 created, 2.23 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
1.03 xG created 2.18 xGA
- L 0.59 created, 1.97 conceded against AFC Ajax
- L 0.80 created, 2.62 conceded against FC Twente
- W 1.55 created, 0.85 conceded against SC Heerenveen
- L 1.98 created, 1.98 conceded against NEC Nijmegen
- D 1.07 created, 2.23 conceded against Sparta Rotterdam
- L 0.19 created, 3.40 conceded against Feyenoord
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle to win | 5.50 | +27.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.50 | +16.5% | Lost |
| FC Groningen not to score | 9.00 | +14.0% | Lost |
| FC Groningen at most 1 goal | 2.63 | +7.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.88 | +3.6% | Lost |
| PEC Zwolle to score | 1.33 | +0.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen | 51.0% | 61.8% | −10.8 pp | 1.96 |
| Draw | 25.9% | 21.0% | +4.8 pp | 3.86 |
| PEC Zwolle | 23.1% | 17.2% | +5.9 pp | 4.32 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen to score | 87.3% | 89.4% | −2.0 pp | 1.15 |
| FC Groningen not to score | 12.7% | 10.6% | +2.0 pp | 7.89 |
| PEC Zwolle to score | 75.1% | 70.9% | +4.2 pp | 1.33 |
| PEC Zwolle not to score | 24.9% | 29.1% | −4.2 pp | 4.02 |
| Both teams to score | 67.0% | 64.5% | +2.5 pp | 1.49 |
| Both teams not to score | 33.0% | 35.5% | −2.5 pp | 3.03 |
| FC Groningen 2+ goals | 59.0% | 64.5% | −5.6 pp | 1.70 |
| FC Groningen at most 1 goal | 41.0% | 35.5% | +5.6 pp | 2.44 |
| PEC Zwolle 2+ goals | 37.7% | 35.5% | +2.2 pp | 2.65 |
| PEC Zwolle at most 1 goal | 62.3% | 64.5% | −2.2 pp | 1.61 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.4% | 85.4% | +1.0 pp | 1.16 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.6% | 14.6% | −1.0 pp | 7.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.0% | 67.3% | −3.3 pp | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.0% | 32.7% | +3.3 pp | 2.78 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Groningen sample
- 20 matches
- PEC Zwolle sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 minute before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.