PEC Zwolle 1:3 NEC Nijmegen: xG & match report · Eredivisie

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 21:00

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Match report · Eredivisie

PEC Zwolle Home 1.98 xG · 9 shots

NEC Nijmegen Away 1.98 xG · 8 shots

13 The chances were evenly matched

NEC Nijmegen were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was PEC Zwolle's attack: 1.98 xG against 1.17 projected (+0.81).

Goals

5' Tjaronn Chery (pen.) NEC Nijmegen · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
23' Tjaronn Chery (pen.) NEC Nijmegen · 0.82 xG chance 0–2
45' Koen Kostons (pen.) PEC Zwolle · 0.82 xG chance 1–2
83' Perr Schuurs NEC Nijmegen · 0.10 xG chance 1–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

PEC Zwolle: 20%
Draw: 25%
NEC Nijmegen: 55% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

PEC Zwolle 1.17 1.98 +0.81

NEC Nijmegen 1.96 1.98 +0.02

PEC Zwolle produced 0.81 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

PEC Zwolle NEC Nijmegen

Shots: 9; 8
On target: 2; 4
Inside the box: 7; 6
xG per shot: 0.23; 0.26
Open play xG: 0.21; 0.24
Set-piece xG: 0.19; 0.18
Penalties: 2; 2

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.41 for PEC Zwolle and 0.40 for NEC Nijmegen.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

17 shots · 4.10 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

PEC Zwolle
NEC Nijmegen
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

PEC Zwolle

0.87 xG created 1.92 xGA

L 0.83 created, 1.88 conceded against PSV Eindhoven
W 0.62 created, 1.00 conceded against Heracles Almelo
L 0.80 created, 3.21 conceded against Feyenoord
L 0.59 created, 1.97 conceded against AFC Ajax
L 0.80 created, 2.62 conceded against FC Twente
W 1.55 created, 0.85 conceded against SC Heerenveen

NEC Nijmegen

2.44 xG created 1.24 xGA

D 1.86 created, 1.28 conceded against FC Twente
D 2.11 created, 1.22 conceded against SC Telstar
L 1.08 created, 1.56 conceded against FC Groningen
W 4.44 created, 0.32 conceded against Go Ahead Eagles
L 2.15 created, 1.66 conceded against SC Telstar
W 2.99 created, 1.43 conceded against Willem II Tilburg

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

PEC Zwolle: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on PEC Zwolle against NEC Nijmegen before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.88	+7.9%	Lost
PEC Zwolle at most 1 goal	1.57	+5.2%	Won
NEC Nijmegen to win	1.90	+4.8%	Won
Draw	4.10	+3.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle	19.6%	26.0%	−6.4 pp	5.11
Draw	25.3%	23.4%	+1.8 pp	3.96
NEC Nijmegen	55.2%	50.6%	+4.6 pp	1.81

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle to score	71.7%	73.1%	−1.4 pp	1.39
PEC Zwolle not to score	28.3%	26.9%	+1.4 pp	3.53
NEC Nijmegen to score	88.1%	86.4%	+1.7 pp	1.14
NEC Nijmegen not to score	11.9%	13.6%	−1.7 pp	8.38
Both teams to score	64.5%	64.5%	+0.0 pp	1.55
Both teams not to score	35.5%	35.5%	−0.0 pp	2.82
PEC Zwolle 2+ goals	33.0%	41.1%	−8.1 pp	3.03
PEC Zwolle at most 1 goal	67.0%	58.9%	+8.1 pp	1.49
NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals	60.5%	60.8%	−0.3 pp	1.65
NEC Nijmegen at most 1 goal	39.5%	39.2%	+0.3 pp	2.53
Over 1.5 goals	85.6%	85.7%	−0.1 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.4%	14.3%	+0.1 pp	6.94
Over 2.5 goals	62.5%	67.8%	−5.3 pp	1.60
Under 2.5 goals	37.5%	32.2%	+5.3 pp	2.66

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
PEC Zwolle sample: 20 matches
NEC Nijmegen sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.