Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 21:00
Full timeSC Heerenveen 0:2 PEC Zwolle
SC Heerenveen were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. PEC Zwolle won 2–0. The biggest difference was SC Heerenveen's attack: 0.85 xG against 1.79 projected (−0.94). PEC Zwolle produced 1.55 xG against 1.27 projected (+0.28).
Goals
- 50' Nick Viergever PEC Zwolle · 0.42 xG chance 0–1
- 61' Koen Kostons PEC Zwolle · 0.06 xG chance 0–2
The model against the result
- SC Heerenveen
- 48%
- Draw
- 27%
- PEC Zwolle
- 25% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
SC Heerenveen produced 0.94 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 20
- On target
- 5
- 7
- Inside the box
- 8
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.81
- 1.28
- Set-piece xG
- 0.04
- 0.10
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.41 for PEC Zwolle.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
38 shots · 2.23 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SC Heerenveen
- PEC Zwolle
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.21 xG created 1.78 xGA
1.05 xG created 2.03 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged6 won2 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle to win | 5.25 | +28.8% | Won |
| SC Heerenveen at most 1 goal | 2.63 | +17.4% | Won |
| SC Heerenveen not to score | 8.00 | +15.3% | Won |
| Draw | 4.20 | +14.0% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | +5.4% | Won |
| PEC Zwolle to score | 1.36 | +2.2% | Won |
| PEC Zwolle 2+ goals | 2.75 | +2.0% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | +0.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen | 48.3% | 59.3% | −11.0 pp | 2.07 |
| Draw | 27.1% | 22.6% | +4.5 pp | 3.68 |
| PEC Zwolle | 24.5% | 18.1% | +6.5 pp | 4.08 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen to score | 85.6% | 88.1% | −2.5 pp | 1.17 |
| SC Heerenveen not to score | 14.4% | 11.9% | +2.5 pp | 6.94 |
| PEC Zwolle to score | 75.0% | 68.7% | +6.2 pp | 1.33 |
| PEC Zwolle not to score | 25.0% | 31.3% | −6.2 pp | 3.99 |
| Both teams to score | 65.6% | 60.8% | +4.9 pp | 1.52 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.4% | 39.2% | −4.9 pp | 2.91 |
| SC Heerenveen 2+ goals | 55.3% | 64.5% | −9.2 pp | 1.81 |
| SC Heerenveen at most 1 goal | 44.7% | 35.5% | +9.2 pp | 2.24 |
| PEC Zwolle 2+ goals | 37.1% | 33.7% | +3.4 pp | 2.70 |
| PEC Zwolle at most 1 goal | 62.9% | 66.3% | −3.4 pp | 1.59 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.8% | 84.2% | +0.6 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.2% | 15.8% | −0.6 pp | 6.59 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | 65.2% | −4.2 pp | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.0% | 34.8% | +4.2 pp | 2.56 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Heerenveen sample
- 20 matches
- PEC Zwolle sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 12 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.