xgEdge

Expected goals

SC Heerenveen expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Eredivisie · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

SC Heerenveen's attacking and defensive expected goals in Eredivisie 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

SC Heerenveen xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.26 xG per match
#14/18
Attack (xG per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 PSV Eindhoven 2.87
#2 Feyenoord 2.76
#3 AFC Ajax 2.65
#4 AZ Alkmaar 2.55
#5 FC Twente 2.28
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 1.91
#7 Sparta Rotterdam 1.64
#8 NEC Nijmegen 1.60
#9 FC Groningen 1.54
#10 FC Utrecht 1.41
#11 SC Cambuur 1.35
#12 Excelsior 1.35
#13 Willem II Tilburg 1.29
#14 SC Heerenveen 1.26
#15 SC Telstar 1.09
#16 Fortuna Sittard 0.97
#17 PEC Zwolle 0.94
#18 ADO Den Haag 0.90
League avg
1.69
Total
8.82 7 matches
Defence
1.36 xGA per match
#5/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Twente 0.75
#2 Feyenoord 0.80
#3 AZ Alkmaar 0.95
#4 AFC Ajax 1.25
#5 SC Heerenveen 1.36
#6 PSV Eindhoven 1.37
#7 Excelsior 1.44
#8 Go Ahead Eagles 1.63
#9 ADO Den Haag 1.90
#10 NEC Nijmegen 1.92
#11 FC Groningen 1.93
#12 SC Cambuur 2.04
#13 SC Telstar 2.05
#14 PEC Zwolle 2.06
#15 Sparta Rotterdam 2.10
#16 FC Utrecht 2.11
#17 Willem II Tilburg 2.28
#18 Fortuna Sittard 2.42
League avg
1.69
Total
9.55 7 matches
xG difference
-0.10 xGD per match
#8/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Feyenoord +1.96
#2 AZ Alkmaar +1.60
#3 FC Twente +1.53
#4 PSV Eindhoven +1.51
#5 AFC Ajax +1.40
#6 Go Ahead Eagles +0.28
#7 Excelsior -0.09
#8 SC Heerenveen -0.10
#9 NEC Nijmegen -0.32
#10 FC Groningen -0.39
#11 Sparta Rotterdam -0.46
#12 SC Cambuur -0.68
#13 FC Utrecht -0.70
#14 SC Telstar -0.96
#15 Willem II Tilburg -0.99
#16 ADO Den Haag -1.00
#17 PEC Zwolle -1.12
#18 Fortuna Sittard -1.46
League avg
0.00
Total
-0.73 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.28 xPts per match
#9/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Feyenoord 2.49
#2 FC Twente 2.43
#3 AZ Alkmaar 2.30
#4 AFC Ajax 2.20
#5 PSV Eindhoven 2.18
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 1.59
#7 Excelsior 1.31
#8 FC Groningen 1.28
#9 SC Heerenveen 1.28
#10 NEC Nijmegen 1.18
#11 Sparta Rotterdam 1.15
#12 FC Utrecht 1.14
#13 SC Cambuur 0.91
#14 ADO Den Haag 0.85
#15 SC Telstar 0.79
#16 Willem II Tilburg 0.79
#17 PEC Zwolle 0.73
#18 Fortuna Sittard 0.72
League avg
1.41
Total
8.97 vs 9 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

SC Heerenveen's underlying numbers sit close to the Eredivisie average. They rank #8 for xG difference at -0.10 per match, from about average shot volume at low chance quality. Their 11 goals are 2.18 above 8.82 xG, while 9 points are 0.03 above 8.97 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
11 8.82 +2.18 scored 2.18 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
9 9.55 -0.55 conceded 0.55 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
9 8.97 +0.03 0.03 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

SC Heerenveen are 2.18 goals above their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
11
xG
8.82
Gap
+2.18
Sun 09/08 Sun 16/08 Sat 22/08 Sun 30/08 Sun 06/09 Sun 13/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.60 +1.24 +0.39 +1.04 +1.52 -0.02 +2.18 +0.60 +0.64 -0.85 +0.65 +0.48 -1.54 +2.20 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
SC Heerenveen: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 09/08 FC Twente 1 0.40 +0.60 +0.60
Sun 16/08 AFC Ajax 2 1.36 +0.64 +1.24
Sat 22/08 PEC Zwolle 0 0.85 -0.85 +0.39
Sun 30/08 Willem II Tilburg 2 1.35 +0.65 +1.04
Sun 06/09 AZ Alkmaar 2 1.52 +0.48 +1.52
Sun 13/09 SC Telstar 0 1.54 -1.54 -0.02
Sat 19/09 Sparta Rotterdam 4 1.80 +2.20 +2.18

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

SC Heerenveen xG trend

Current form +0.06 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 7 matches. The worst was against FC Twente on Sun 09/08 (-1.34).

npxG · last 6
1.42
npxGA · last 6
1.36
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.34 Sun 09/08 -0.79 Sun 16/08 -0.56 Sat 22/08 -0.35 Sun 30/08 +0.11 Sun 06/09 +0.84 Sun 13/09 +1.13 Sat 19/09 -0.14 season avg
SC Heerenveen: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 09/08 FC Twente 0.39 1.73 -1.34 -1.34
Sun 16/08 AFC Ajax 1.36 2.15 -0.79 -1.07
Sat 22/08 PEC Zwolle 0.85 1.41 -0.56 -0.90
Sun 30/08 Willem II Tilburg 1.35 1.70 -0.35 -0.76
Sun 06/09 AZ Alkmaar 1.62 1.51 +0.11 -0.59
Sun 13/09 SC Telstar 1.55 0.71 +0.84 -0.35
Sat 19/09 Sparta Rotterdam 1.80 0.67 +1.13 -0.14

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.27 npxG and 1.41 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 12 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
−0.01 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 17 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
−0.28 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.01 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 12 hardest of 18

  1. Sparta Rotterdam Away −0.34
  2. SC Telstar Home −0.51
  3. AZ Alkmaar Home +0.56
  4. Willem II Tilburg Away −0.55
  5. PEC Zwolle Home −0.54
  6. AFC Ajax Away +0.62
  7. FC Twente Home +0.71

Last 5

−0.28 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 17 hardest of 18

  1. Sparta Rotterdam Away −0.34
  2. SC Telstar Home −0.51
  3. AZ Alkmaar Home +0.56
  4. Willem II Tilburg Away −0.55
  5. PEC Zwolle Home −0.54

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

SC Heerenveen shots and chance quality

Average volume, low quality. SC Heerenveen take 16.0 shots a match (league 15.0) at 0.08 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #6 in Eredivisie for volume and #17 for quality. 59% of their shots come from inside the box (league 66%), and set pieces produce 20% of their npxG (league 18%).

Attack

Shot volume
16.0 shots per match
#6/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AFC Ajax 24.7
#2 Feyenoord 22.3
#3 FC Twente 21.6
#4 PSV Eindhoven 21.0
#5 AZ Alkmaar 19.4
#6 SC Heerenveen 16.0
=7 Go Ahead Eagles 15.1
=7 NEC Nijmegen 15.1
#9 FC Groningen 15.0
#10 Sparta Rotterdam 13.1
=11 ADO Den Haag 11.9
=11 SC Cambuur 11.9
=11 Willem II Tilburg 11.9
#14 Excelsior 11.3
#15 FC Utrecht 10.9
#16 PEC Zwolle 10.6
#17 Fortuna Sittard 10.1
#18 SC Telstar 7.9
League avg
15.0
Total
112 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.08 npxG per shot
#17/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 AZ Alkmaar 0.13
#2 Go Ahead Eagles 0.13
#3 PSV Eindhoven 0.13
#4 Sparta Rotterdam 0.12
#5 Excelsior 0.12
#6 FC Utrecht 0.12
#7 Feyenoord 0.12
#8 SC Cambuur 0.11
#9 Willem II Tilburg 0.11
#10 AFC Ajax 0.11
#11 SC Telstar 0.10
#12 NEC Nijmegen 0.10
#13 FC Groningen 0.10
#14 FC Twente 0.09
#15 Fortuna Sittard 0.09
#16 PEC Zwolle 0.09
#17 SC Heerenveen 0.08
#18 ADO Den Haag 0.08
League avg
0.11
Total
8.92 npxG from 112 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
15.9 shots per match
=8/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AZ Alkmaar 8.1
=2 AFC Ajax 9.6
=2 Feyenoord 9.6
#4 FC Twente 10.0
#5 PSV Eindhoven 10.1
#6 NEC Nijmegen 11.6
#7 FC Groningen 15.1
=8 SC Cambuur 15.9
=8 SC Heerenveen 15.9
=10 ADO Den Haag 16.1
=10 Excelsior 16.1
#12 Go Ahead Eagles 16.6
#13 SC Telstar 17.9
#14 Sparta Rotterdam 18.0
#15 FC Utrecht 18.6
#16 Willem II Tilburg 19.9
#17 Fortuna Sittard 20.3
#18 PEC Zwolle 20.4
League avg
15.0
Total
111 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#4/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FC Twente 0.06
#2 Feyenoord 0.08
#3 Excelsior 0.09
#4 SC Heerenveen 0.09
#5 Go Ahead Eagles 0.09
#6 PEC Zwolle 0.10
#7 FC Utrecht 0.10
#8 SC Telstar 0.11
#9 ADO Den Haag 0.11
#10 SC Cambuur 0.11
#11 Willem II Tilburg 0.11
#12 Fortuna Sittard 0.12
#13 Sparta Rotterdam 0.12
#14 AZ Alkmaar 0.12
#15 FC Groningen 0.12
#16 AFC Ajax 0.13
#17 PSV Eindhoven 0.13
#18 NEC Nijmegen 0.17
League avg
0.11
Total
9.88 npxGA from 111 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

59% inside the box

League avg 66%

From 66 of 112 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

61% allowed inside the box

League avg 66%

From 68 of 111 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

80% open play · 20% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 1.8 of 9.0 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

89% open play · 11% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 1.1 of 9.7 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

SC Heerenveen home and away xG

SC Heerenveen per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 1.08 1.50
xGA / match 1.30 1.46
xGD / match -0.22 +0.05
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.17 1.43

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every SC Heerenveen match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.26
xGA / match
1.36
xGD / match
-0.10
Points
9 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 Sparta Rotterdam A Best underlying xG 1.80 xGA 0.67 xGD +1.13
  2. Sun 13/09 SC Telstar H xG 1.54 xGA 0.71 xGD +0.83
  3. Sun 06/09 AZ Alkmaar H xG 1.52 xGA 1.51 xGD +0.01
  4. Sun 30/08 Willem II Tilburg A xG 1.35 xGA 1.70 xGD -0.35
  5. Sat 22/08 PEC Zwolle H xG 0.85 xGA 1.55 xGD -0.70
  6. Sun 16/08 AFC Ajax A xG 1.36 xGA 2.00 xGD -0.64
  7. Sun 09/08 FC Twente H Against the chances xG 0.40 xGA 1.41 xGD -1.01

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

SC Heerenveen in Eredivisie

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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