Eredivisie expected points table 2026/2027
Every Eredivisie club ranked on the points its match-by-match chances were worth, with the position the real table gives it and the distance between the two.
Feyenoord lead on expected points with 17.41 over 7 matches with xG. Fortuna Sittard sit 12 places higher in the table than their chances place them: 6 against 18 on expected points. Go Ahead Eagles sit 3 places lower in the table than their chances place them: 9 against 6 on expected points.
Table against xPts
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
- Fewer than 3 places apart
Ranked on expected points
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts vs xPts | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord FEY | 7 | 17 | 17.41 | −0.41 | 2 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 2 | FC Twente FCT | 7 | 16 | 16.99 | −0.99 | 4 | 2 places below its expected-points rank |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar AZA | 7 | 19 | 16.09 | +2.91 | 1 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 4 | AFC Ajax AFC | 7 | 14 | 15.37 | −1.37 | 5 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 5 | PSV Eindhoven PSV | 7 | 16 | 15.23 | +0.77 | 3 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 6 | Go Ahead Eagles GOA | 7 | 10 | 11.13 | −1.13 | 9 | 3 places below its expected-points rank |
| 7 | Excelsior EXC | 7 | 11 | 9.16 | +1.84 | 7 | Same place as on expected points |
| 8 | FC Groningen FCG | 7 | 11 | 8.99 | +2.01 | 8 | Same place as on expected points |
| 9 | SC Heerenveen SCH | 7 | 9 | 8.97 | +0.03 | 10 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen NEC | 7 | 8 | 8.24 | −0.24 | 11 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam SPA | 7 | 5 | 8.07 | −3.07 | 12 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 12 | FC Utrecht FCU | 7 | 5 | 7.98 | −2.98 | 15 | 3 places below its expected-points rank |
| 13 | SC Cambuur SCC | 7 | 5 | 6.39 | −1.39 | 14 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 14 | ADO Den Haag ADO | 7 | 2 | 5.92 | −3.92 | 17 | 3 places below its expected-points rank |
| 15 | SC Telstar SCT | 7 | 5 | 5.54 | −0.54 | 13 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 16 | Willem II Tilburg WIL | 7 | 2 | 5.52 | −3.52 | 18 | 2 places below its expected-points rank |
| 17 | PEC Zwolle PEC | 7 | 4 | 5.14 | −1.14 | 16 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 18 | Fortuna Sittard FOR | 7 | 13 | 5.04 | +7.96 | 6 | 12 places above its expected-points rank |
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
A gap can come from finishing, goalkeeping, game state or chance. xG and xPts are model estimates, not the result a team deserved.
About these figures What each column measures, and the thresholds this ranking is under. Show Hide
- P
- — Matches played
- Pts
- — Points
- xPts
- — Expected points: the points a team's match-by-match xG would be worth on average.
- Pts vs xPts
- — Actual points minus expected points based on match xG.
- Actual
- — Position in the real table
- Diff
- — Places between this ranking and the real table. Up is a club higher in the real table than its expected points place it.
Every club with expected goals behind it is ranked here: these are season totals rather than rates, so a club is not held back by having played fewer matches. The ranking opens once the median club has played 3.